What is the status of the peace plan for Ukraine?

Negotiations leading to an end to a war can sometimes take years. Only since the end of October, when the US presented a shocking peace plan for Ukraine, have talks between Kiev, Washington, Moscow and the Europeans gained momentum. Ukraine and the Europeans supporting it are primarily concerned with changing the extremely Russia-friendly US plan to provide better conditions for Ukraine.

We met for the fourth time US President Donald Trump and the Ukrainian head of state Volodimir Zelensky this year for talks about ending the war. After their negotiations in Trump’s luxury home Mar-a-Lago, Florida, there were initially no big reports of success. But there was also small progress. Where are they and what is still wrong?

Trump praised the “excellent” conversation with Zelensky and the “great progress” in ending the war. What progress exactly?

Although Trump and Zelenskiy praised each other lavishly at a press conference, they hardly addressed any specific points. Zelenskiy assured that he and Trump had discussed “all aspects” of a 20-point peace plan: they were “90 percent” on the way to an agreement. Ukraine even “100 percent agrees” with the military aspects of the US plan. But Zelensky didn’t give any specific details about this either.

What are the ten percent that Ukraine cannot agree to?

The cession of territory to Russia. Kremlin leader Putin is insisting on his maximum demands, including Ukraine’s unilateral withdrawal from the remaining part of eastern Donbass that is still under Kiev’s control.

This is a red line for Ukraine. Ukraine has built a fortress wall here. If it were to abandon it, Russia could continue to advance militarily without any problems. Studies have calculated that at the current rate of its advance and with massive losses, it would take Russia at least another year and a half to conquer the rest of Donbass.

What does Ukraine want, on the other hand?

Zelenskiy is insisting on a ceasefire – fighting should be frozen along the current front line. A referendum could then be organized within 60 days to determine whether the Ukrainian population agrees to the US plan, including ceding territory to Russia.

“Of course, our society has to make a choice and vote, because it is their country, not the country of a single person, it is the country of our nation,” Zelensky said. Moscow flatly rejects this – a ceasefire is currently out of the question for Moscow. The attacks with drones and missiles on targets in Ukraine will continue with all severity.

Could the territory in Donbass not yet conquered by Russia be demilitarized and declared a neutral zone?

Zelensky would agree to a Ukrainian troop withdrawal to create an economic zone – as Trump proposes – if Russian forces did the same. However, the area would have to officially remain part of Ukraine and be monitored by an international peacekeeping force. Moscow says: Njet.

What about the US security commitments demanded by Ukraine?

Without being specific, Trump said Sunday: “We’re going to work with Europe; they’re going to do a big part of it.” The only thing that is certain is that the USA will not send any soldiers to Ukraine, but can offer the Europeans logistical support. Zelenskiy insists on 50 years of US security guarantees, Trump wants to offer a maximum of 15 years. All details are still open. Trump also offered to speak to the Ukrainian parliament “if it would save 25,000 lives a month” and advance a peace agreement. Russia categorically rejects any European soldier being stationed in Ukraine. Every soldier is a legitimate target for Russia.

The management of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is also still controversial…

Trump assured that Putin was ready to work with Kiev on control of the nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest – as part of a peace deal. Russian forces are currently controlling the power plant in southeastern Ukraine. “The facility is in good condition and can be put back into operation immediately. Putin is working with Ukraine to make the start-up possible,” said Trump, who also spent more than two hours on the phone with Putin on Sunday. “That’s a big step if he’s not bombing the facility.”

After the meeting with Trump, Zelenskiy called the Europeans and informed them of the progress of the negotiations. What do you know about it?

US President Trump also spoke to European heads of state and government, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Nothing is known about any concrete statements. However, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the “good progress. Europe stands ready to continue working with Ukraine and our US partners to consolidate this progress,” von der Leyen said, adding: “Of utmost importance for these efforts are absolute security guarantees from day one.”

What is the conclusion of the recent negotiations?

Even if the USA is now putting massive pressure to actually reach a peace agreement soon, one side in particular is missing: Russia. Moscow has already signaled that it will reject any changes proposed by Ukraine to Trump’s previous 28-point plan. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently accused Kiev of avoiding “constructive negotiations” to end the war. Putin, in turn, threatened that Russia would use force to achieve its goals if Kiev rejected his conditions.

In any case, Zelenskiy does not expect Putin to agree to the plan proposed by Ukraine. Rather, he called on Trump and his team to put massive pressure on the USA on Russia.