They investigate a possible Russian weapon that would seek to attack Elon Musk’s satellite network

Intelligence findings seen by The Associated Press say the so-called “zone effect” weapon would seek to flood Starlink orbits with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets, potentially disabling multiple satellites at once, but also risking catastrophic collateral damage to other systems in orbit.

Analysts who have not seen the findings say they doubt such a weapon could work without causing uncontrollable chaos in space for companies and countries, including Russia and its ally China, that rely on thousands of satellites in orbit for communications, defense and other vital needs.

Such repercussions, including risks to its own space systems, could discourage Moscow from deploying or using such a weapon, analysts said.

“I don’t believe it. Seriously, no,” said Victoria Samson, a space security specialist at the Secure World Foundation, who leads the Colorado-based nongovernmental organization’s annual study of anti-satellite systems. “I would be very surprised, frankly, if they did something like that.”

But the commander of the Canadian military’s Space Division, Brigadier General Christopher Horner, said such a Russian project cannot be ruled out in light of previous U.S. accusations that Russia has also worked on an indiscriminate space-based nuclear weapon.

“I can’t say I’ve been informed about that kind of system. But it’s not implausible,” he said. “If the reports on the nuclear weapons system are accurate and they are willing to develop it and go to that extreme, well, I wouldn’t be surprised if something just short of that, but equally damaging, is within their scope of development.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to AP messages seeking comment. Russia has previously called for United Nations efforts to halt orbital deployment of weapons, and President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow has no intention of deploying space nuclear weapons.

The weapon would have multiple targets

The intelligence findings were shown to the AP on the condition that the services involved not be identified and the news organization could not independently verify the conclusions of the findings.

The US Space Force did not respond to emailed questions. The French military’s Space Command said in a statement to the AP that it could not comment on the findings, but said: “We can inform you that Russia has been, in recent years, multiplying irresponsible, dangerous and even hostile actions in space.”

Russia views Starlink in particular as a serious threat, the findings indicate. The thousands of low-orbit satellites have been critical to Ukraine’s survival against Russia’s full-scale invasion, which is now in its fourth year.

Starlink’s high-speed internet service is used by Ukrainian forces for battlefield communications, weapons guidance and other roles, and by civilians and government officials where Russian attacks have affected communications.

Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites serving Ukraine’s military could be legitimate targets. Russia said this month that it has deployed a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, that is capable of hitting low-orbit targets.

Unlike a missile Russia tested in 2021 to destroy a decommissioned Cold War-era satellite, the new weapon under development would target multiple Starlinks at once, with pellets possibly released by formations of yet-to-be-launched small satellites, intelligence findings say.

Canada’s Horner said it’s difficult to see how clouds of pellets could be controlled to hit only Starlink devices, noting that debris from such an attack could get “out of control quickly.”

“You explode a box full of pellets,” he said. Doing that “would cover an entire orbital regime and eliminate every Starlink satellite and any other satellites that are in a similar regime. And I think that’s the part that’s incredibly concerning.”

It is possible that the system is only experimental

The findings seen by the AP did not say when Russia might be able to deploy such a system nor did they detail whether it has been tested or where the investigation is believed to be.

The system is under active development and information about the timing of an expected deployment is too sensitive to share, according to an official familiar with the findings and other related intelligence that the AP did not see. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the non-public findings.

Such Russian research could simply be experimental, Samson said.

“I wouldn’t rule out some scientists…building something like this because it’s an interesting thought experiment and they think, you know, ‘Maybe at some point we can get our government to fund it,’” he said.

Samson suggested that the specter of a supposed new Russian threat could also be an effort to provoke an international response.

“Often the people who promote these ideas do it because they want the American side to build something like this or … to justify increased spending on counterbalancing capabilities or use it for a more belligerent approach toward Russia,” he said.

“I’m not saying this is what’s happening with this,” Samson added. “But it has been known to happen that people take these crazy arguments and use them.”

Small pellets could remain undetected

Intelligence findings say the pellets would be so small, just millimeters wide, that they would evade detection by ground- and space-based systems that scan space objects, which could make it difficult to attribute responsibility for any attack to Moscow.

Clayton Swope, who specializes in space security and weapons at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a security and policy think tank based in Washington, D.C., said that if “the pellets are not traceable, that complicates things,” but “people would find out.”

“If satellites start going down with damage, I guess you could put two and two together,” he said.

It’s unclear exactly how much destruction the small pellets could cause. In November, a possible impact from a small piece of debris was enough to damage a Chinese spacecraft that was scheduled to return three astronauts to Earth.

“The majority of the damage would probably be done to the solar panels because they are probably the most fragile part” of the satellites, Swope said. “That would be enough, however, to damage a satellite and probably put it out of service.”

The “weapon of fear” could threaten chaos

After such an attack, pellets and debris would eventually fall back toward Earth, possibly damaging other systems in orbit on their way down, analysts say.

Starlink’s orbits are about 550 kilometers (340 miles) above the planet. China’s Tiangong space station and the International Space Station operate in lower orbits, “so both would face risks,” according to Swope.

The space chaos such a weapon could cause could allow Moscow to threaten its adversaries without actually using it, Swope said.

“It definitely feels like a fear weapon, looking for some kind of deterrence or something,” he said.

Samson said the drawbacks of an indiscriminate pellet gun could steer Russia away from such a path.

“They’ve invested an enormous amount of time, money and human power into being, you know, a space power,” he said.

Using such a weapon would “effectively cut off their access to space as well,” Samson said. “I don’t know if they would be willing to give up so much.”