Cuba admitted after the attack in Venezuela that 32 officers, who are part of Maduro’s security team, were killed during the operation • There is a growing assessment that the closed country that supported Maduro will have difficulty surviving in the new situation • The US has marked a new target – and threatens the most powerful man in Venezuela, who is responsible for the security forces • Trump announced: a new huge oil deal with Venezuela, China is angry
Cuba’s intelligence system, considered for decades to be one of the most efficient and secretive in the world, suffered a particularly heavy blow this weekend. The special forces became famous thanks to the security missions they received for presidents and heads of state around the world – from Angola to Panama. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was one of the jewels in the crown in terms of the international missions of the security system of the Cuban intelligence.
The precise US military action that led to Maduro’s capture dealt a heavy blow to the Cuban establishment and severely damaged it, as well as its sense of prestige and its image as an invulnerable leader. Cuba admitted after the raid that 32 officers from its military forces and from the Ministry of the Interior, which operates the intelligence services, were killed during the operation, as part of Maduro’s security team. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, About 140 Cuban security personnel were deployed to protect him, and many more were injured or burned by missile launches and shrapnel hits.
According to the report, the very fact that the Cuban forces failed to protect Maduro, nor to inflict real damage on the American forces, reveals serious weaknesses in Havana’s security and intelligence procedures. In Cuba itself, they warn that the damage to the intelligence status could also undermine the stability of the regime, especially if Venezuela stops providing it with economic support and subsidized oil shipments, while the island is facing an acute economic crisis. Trump himself said this week: “Cuba looks like it’s going to fall, I don’t know if they’ll last.”
Cuban President Miguel Diaz Canel declared days of national mourning, calling the dead those who fell in a conflict with American soldiers. At the same time, senior US officials claimed that Cuba is losing its grip and influence, and that one of Venezuela’s main problems is its deep dependence on Havana.
The most powerful man in Venezuela is in the crosshairs of the US
As Washington continues to consolidate its grip on the Venezuelan arena, the Trump administration has marked a new target: hard-line Interior and Justice Minister Diosdado Cavajo. According to a Reuters report, the United States sent him a clear message through intermediaries, according to which if he does not cooperate with the American demands and does not help maintain order during the transition period, and in particular if he does not help the new president Delsey Rodriguez, he may be subject to a fate similar to that of Maduro.
Cavajo, who controls the country’s security forces, which are associated with widespread human rights violations, is considered a figure who could disrupt American plans in the country, especially due to his rivalry with President Rodrigues. In Washington, they fear that a dramatic move against him could ignite riots from armed pro-government groups, so they are trying to force him to cooperate, at least in the first stage.
At the same time, Defense Minister Vladimir Federino Lopez is also under close surveillance, and the US sees his cooperation as a key to preventing a governmental vacuum. American officials make it clear that this is still a law enforcement operation, and that Washington does not intend to stop here. Yesterday, Trump threatened that the US might attack Venezuela again.
The big oil deal
Against the tense security background, a new oil agreement was also forged between Venezuela and the US. President Trump announced tonight that Venezuela will divert oil shipments destined for China and allow the US to import and refine oil worth up to two billion dollars, including the sale of tens of millions of barrels stuck in the country due to the sanctions.
The move has already affected the markets, with a decrease of approximately 1% in world oil prices, due to the expectation of an increase in supply. President Trump clarified that the proceeds from the sale will be under his control, according to him to ensure that the money will be used by the citizens of Venezuela and the United States.
Venezuela itself has not yet officially approved the agreement, but China reacted with fury and accused the US of bullying and violating international law. Russia and other allies of Caracas also condemned the American raid and the entire move.
Meanwhile, in Washington they make it clear that the top priority is the stabilization of the country and the revitalization of the oil industry, even at the cost of temporary cooperation with those close to the old regime. The Venezuelan opposition remains on the sidelines for the time being, and the American message is clear: those who cooperate will stay in the game, and those who don’t may pay a heavy price.