Rehn can become the head of the ECB – A surprise in the vote can decide the fate

The atmosphere in the meeting room is described as civil, even though the stakes are high, as the Eurogroup’s deputy finance ministers deliberated on Monday and Tuesday in Brussels about preliminary voting procedures for the election of the European Central Bank’s deputy governor.

The current vice president Luis de Guindosin the eight-year term ends on May 31.

On Monday (January 19), the finance ministers of the euro area will choose the next deputy governor of the European Central Bank (ECB) in a secret ballot.

The official decision will be made later by the European Council of the leaders of the EU countries, but in practice, according to experts, the choice will be made as early as next Monday, as the European Council is unlikely to change the name of the Eurogroup.

The EU Parliament also hears the candidates for deputy director general. In addition, the Parliament and the ECB Council give their opinion on the candidate selected by the Eurogroup.

Finland hopes that the Governor of the Bank of Finland will be elected in the position of Deputy Governor of the ECB Olli Rehn.

In addition to Rehn, Estonia is also competing for the position of ECB deputy governor Madis Müller, Latvian Mārtiņš Kazāks and former Finance Minister of Lithuania Rimantas Shadžius. The candidates from Southern Europe are the former chairman of the Central Bank of Portugal Mario Centeno and Governor of the Central Bank of Croatia Boris Vujcic.

The winner needs at least 16 votes from the 21 Eurogroup ministers, meaning there will likely be several secret ballots before the winner is decided.

Rehn is considered a strong candidate. His extensive international experience speaks for itself. Even though Croatia, for example, has a strong candidate Vujčić, it is not believed that Croatia will be able to win the vice president of the ECB, because the country has only been in the euro for three years.

Geography may also play a role, as the last three ECB vice-presidents have been southern Europeans, so now it should be the north’s turn.

According to a source familiar with the matter, the fact that most of the candidates now come from Northern Europe and Rehn is competing with representatives of the Baltic countries can make the situation challenging for Rehn, so the votes can be fragmented and create a nasty surprise for Rehn.

There will also certainly be political cow-dealing, as the competition for the deputy governor’s seat opens a wider battle for seats on the ECB’s six-member executive board, which is the euro area’s most influential economic and monetary policy decision-making body.

The competition for the four seats on the executive board that will be vacated in two years will be fierce as the big countries try to maintain their influence. According to sources, some of the vice president candidates may already be eyeing other board positions.

In Finland and the Minister of Finance Riikka Purralla (ps) has a tough Monday ahead of him, where his political ability to compromise will be weighed.

Rehn’s profile would be appropriate for this moment: the eurozone needs less rhetoric and more performance, and here a pragmatic Rehn, boiled in many European broths, should be strong.