2,000 or 20,000 dead? Why counts of protesters killed in Iran vary depending on sources

A complicated census work in Iran. The harsh repression of protests that have shaken the country in recent weeks has left thousands dead, according to experts and human rights groups. But their tolls vary greatly, with estimates of up to 20,000 deaths.

Variations which can be explained by the difficulty of establishing a clear count of victims for the organizations responsible for it, due to a general internet shutdown imposed for more than a week by the authorities. Consequence: the figures published, at this stage, only reflect a minimum of verified cases. Here is the detail.

Between 5,000 and 20,000 deaths according to NGOs in Iran

The NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR), based in Norway, claims to have verified the deaths of 3,428 demonstrators killed by security forces. This report includes cases established by the organization itself or confirmed by two independent sources.

It is also based on information received from Ministry of Health sources for the period January 8 to 12, according to a recent report.

IHR warns, however, that the toll is probably much higher, citing estimates ranging from 5,000 to 20,000 deaths, figures which the Internet shutdown imposed on January 8 makes it difficult to verify.

As of January 15, US-based Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) reported that 2,677 deaths had been confirmed and that it was investigating another 1,693 cases. The organization also reported 2,677 people seriously injured.

At least 12,000 dead according to foreign media

At least 12,000 people were killed during the protests, mainly on January 8 and 9, according to Iran International, a Persian-language opposition channel located outside Iran, citing high-ranking sources in the government and security services.

“After cross-checking information obtained from reliable sources, including the Supreme National Security Council and the presidential office, the initial estimate of the Islamic Republic’s security institutions is that at least 12,000 people were killed in these nationwide killings,” she said.

Citing “two sources, including one in Iran”, the American channel CBS News indicated this week “that at least 12,000 people, and perhaps up to 20,000, were killed”.

“Exaggerated” figures according to Iranian officials

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Fox News that the mobilization had left “hundreds” dead.

He denounced the other figures put forward as an “exaggeration” as part of a “disinformation campaign” intended, according to him, to push US President Donald Trump to carry out his threat to strike Iran if demonstrators were killed.

Iranian authorities have reported dozens of deaths among security forces, without publishing a recent overall toll. Funerals of slain security forces have become mass gatherings in the Islamic Republic.

International NGOs denounce understated figures

The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, said earlier this week he was “horrified” by the violence targeting demonstrators.

Amnesty International denounced a “massacre”, affirming, in a report dated January 14, that “by the admission of the authorities”, the death toll had reached 2,000 deaths, while emphasizing that NGOs put forward much higher figures.

Human Rights Watch estimates that “thousands of demonstrators and bystanders have been killed”, judging that the “severe communications restrictions” imposed by the government have “concealed the true scale of the atrocities”.

In Geneva, a UN human rights spokesperson said they were in contact with several organizations, including IHR, and were “receiving reports of a high death toll, much higher than in previous protests, suggesting unprecedented levels of violence.”