Before resuming negotiations with the IMF, the Government announced that it had a large surplus in 2025

In 2025 the total fiscal surplus, when accounting for debt interest, was 0.2% of the Product. “It’s about the first time that two consecutive years have been achieved of cash-based financial surplus since 2008, and the first in the historical series that begins in 1993, obtaining said result while complying with all public debt services,” said the minister.

In nominal terms, it was a primary surplus of $11,769,219 million and a financial surplus of $1,453,819 million. December was a month with red accounts for the payment of bonuses: it closed with a primary deficit of $2,876,450 million and a financial deficit of $3,290,302 million, according to the Treasury.

“The fiscal anchor is a fundamental pillar of the economic program since the first month of management, and it is crystallized in the 2026 Budget,” continued Caputo, in his X account. “The order in public accounts and economic growth will allow us to continue returning resources to the private sector in the form of tax reductions, which since 2024 have already reached more than 2.5% of GDP,” he concluded.

Compared to 2024, the surplus achieved by the national government was slightly lower: in the first year of the libertarian mandate it had been 1.8% in primary terms and 0.3% when accounting for the interest on the public debt.

The primary surplus that the national public sector achieved, in this way, exceeded the goal of 1.3% of GDP which had been raised, in the first instance, in the program signed in April.

However, it was below the target. self-imposed by Javier Milei: had committed to sustain an adjustment such that the treasury ends up with a surplus equivalent to 1.6% of the Product. The Government had set a more ambitious result than the one agreed with the Fund to show the market its commitment to the fiscal anchor.

That 1.6% of the Product was adopted as the baseline scenario in the last technical review last August, although in the Treasury Palace they assure that this last figure did not form an updated objective mandatory before the Fund but rather an “extra” fiscal commitment of the Executive Branch. “We committed to having enough surplus to pay the interestthat is, financial balance,” explained a source from the Ministry of Economy.

For this year, in the first version of the agreement signed in April, the Government committed to accelerate the adjustment much more and bring the surplus up to 2.2% of GDP, but in the Budget that number was limited to 1.5%.

The talks between Washington and Buenos Aires will have to “harmonize” this minimum adjustment threshold. It will be a topic of negotiation in a few weeks when the relationship with the Monetary Fund is resumed for the review of goals for the third quarter of the year.

For Nadin Argañaraz, director of the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (Iaraf), “this year has several fiscal challenges, being It is expected that aggregate spending will not decrease in real terms and that real incomes have an increase, without considering the effects of the possible sanction of labor modernization and other measures that may be carried out.”

The tax cuts that the Government included in the labor reform bill will have a cost to the treasury equivalent to 0.8% of GDPa private screening that is allowed at the Casa Rosada.

The last articles of the reform submitted to Congress establish a series of tax reductions that will subtract a portion of revenue if the project is approved.

Among them, a marked decrease in contributions that companies pay on the salaries of their employees – to the retirement system and the social works -, a cut in the corporate income tax and the elimination of some internal taxes.

Aurum Valores highlights that “income fell 3% in real terms in 2025, with notable falls in Personal Property (-35%), Export Duties (-16%) and Internal Taxes (-9%). It accompanied primary spending, which remained constant in real terms.” .

In this framework, the consulting firm LCG foresees for this year a primary result of 1.5% of GDP and a financial result of 0.3% of GDP for the National Public Sector, showing “a slight relaxation with respect to the previous year’s goal.”

LCG mentions that the recently announced reduction in withholdings “will subtract income by 0.1% GDP and The eventual approval of the labor reform with a significant drop in employer contributions would leave a drop of 0.54% in GDP“.

And they add that “to this income adjustment is added the inertia of spending tied to mobility that would add pressure by 0.2% of GDP. Considering the Government’s refusal to raise taxes and with an activity that is difficult for it to take off, this gap generated by lower income and more spending will demand a new wave of adjustments in 2026.”