Trump has not yet attacked Iran – an analysis of the danger and consequences of inaction

Regardless of whether the news is true or not, or if it is partially true, it is important to understand and understand that the responsibility and decision rests with President Trump alone. This is a principled and very important decision, and even if he consults with the Prime Minister of Israel and perhaps with other leaders in the Middle East, anyone who knows Trump and his decision-making style must know that the decision, which has probably not yet been made, is only between the President’s two ears.

In the days before the planned attack, we witnessed the realization of all the usual tell-tale signs: the recommendation to the Americans to leave Iran, the evacuation of non-essential families and workers from American bases in the Gulf, the promotion of essential assets for the purpose of the attack to the region, and explicit threats by the president and his people.

Despite everything, the attack has not yet been carried out, probably as a result of internal debates within the administration, which mainly stem from the difficulty of defining a clear goal and a desired result from a possible attack, whatever scope is determined. It is not known that the administration has defined a goal of overthrowing the administration and replacing it, when it is clear that the correct way to do this is through the Iranian people and not by an external party.

However, the great danger, which must be prevented, is that the chain of events will lead to the fact that the US will not attack Iran, even symbolically, and then in any case, and regardless of what was said in the Netanyahu-Trump talks, Netanyahu will be blamed for it. In that case, the protesters in Iran, who are not currently on the streets for fear of brutal repression, will realize that they have no one to trust and help will not come from any outside source, so they will not come out again to the streets

President Trump, as part of his travels to the Nobel Prize, will declare that thanks to his clear threats peace has returned to Iran and now is the time to enter into negotiations with Khamenei and his people on all the issues in dispute. This is a realistic and catastrophic scenario, as it is clear how it will end. It has not happened even once in the past that entering the negotiation room with Iran resulted in a good agreement, except for the Iranians.

Since the scenario is realistic and will most likely happen if there is no attack, and since President Trump is probably still undecided, it must be made clear to him, regardless of what was said in previous talks, that he must attack Iran. It is better that a broad American attack be carried out on infrastructure facilities, government institutions and damage to the bodies and people who led the suppression of the demonstrations.

But, even if it is not decided on a broad attack, it is possible that even a symbolic attack will thwart the danger of reaching a peace that will lead to negotiations, the end of which will be very problematic for both the US and Israel.

If, after all, the recommendation is not accepted and we end up with unwanted negotiations between the US and Iran, then after the campaign by Israel and the US, which eliminated large parts of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missiles and drones, there is only one goal left for the negotiations: the complete dismantling of everything that remains of the nuclear program and the ballistic and drone capabilities. It is forbidden to continue creating illusions, partial and gradual agreements and diplomatic games.

Trump’s old ultimatum to Tehran was sharp and clear: “Accept the US terms, or face the consequences.” This threat must remain, accompanied by determination. Any entry into negotiations, without the fulfillment of clear preconditions, which Iran must actually do, could be dangerous.

Now, after Iran’s capabilities have been severely damaged, and it is close to a security and economic collapse, the threshold for entering the talks must be very high. Any negotiations must begin only after Iran meets concrete, verifiable preliminary requirements.

Iran enriched uranium to high levels contrary to the decisions of the UN Security Council, attacked Israel directly from Iran and launched hundreds of ballistic missiles, over a thousand drones and dozens of cruise missiles, against civilian and military targets.

Iran must dismantle all nuclear infrastructure and the infrastructure for the production of missiles and drones, destroy the existing stocks and stop any development of launch systems that can carry nuclear warheads, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) that are capable of hitting the US as well.

In the past, Iran specialized in using diplomacy to delay, deceive, mislead, and at the same time continue to promote its plans, as it does today, according to foreign publications, focusing on building new underground capabilities that at this stage are defined as innocent, but in the future will be equipped with facilities for building nuclear and ballistic capabilities, which cannot be hit from the air.

The U.S. must continue on the path that President Trump declared during the protests in Iran, and provide the help and answers he promised to the citizens of Iran yearning for change. External help will rekindle the flames and protests and possibly lead to the breaking of the front protecting the current corrupt administration and lead to its replacement by the Iranian people.