Mobileye is ahead of market expectations, but the forecast is again disappointing

According to conventional accounting rules, a net loss of $392 million was recorded in 2025, a reduction compared to a huge loss of more than $3 billion recorded in 2024 due to accounting write-offs. On a non-GAAP basis, Mobileye recorded an adjusted operating profit of 280 million dollars, close to the upper limit of the forecast it provided. The annual net profit amounted to 286 million dollars.

Of that, the fourth quarter contributed $45 million to the bottom line, meaning a net profit of 6 cents per share, in line with analysts’ forecasts. The flow from operations in the year ended was 602 million dollars, and the company had cash at the end of 1.8 billion dollars.

As for 2026, Mobileye provides a forecast according to which it expects revenues of 1.9-1.98 billion dollars. In the middle of the forecast range, we are talking about growth at a rate of about 2.4%. The market expected more, when the analyst consensus was for revenues of 2 billion dollars in the coming year.

“I am proud of the Mobileye team for achieving 2025 results that were able to significantly exceed our initial expectations,” said Mobileye President and CEO, Prof. Amnon Shashua. “We are opening the year 2026 with strong momentum and with cash-generating activities that allow us to finance continued investment in the promotion and realization of our products throughout our portfolio. Our ambition is to comprehensively lead in the field of Physical AI both in autonomous vehicles and in humanoid robotics. Our product roadmap in the automotive field is prepared to leverage the growing demand for single and cost-effective ECU systems that enable hands-free driving for vehicles with high production volumes as well as for driverless driving systems for autonomous robotaxis services.”

Mobileye, which is controlled by Intel, is traded on Nasdaq at a value of 8.9 billion dollars, and with the publication of the reports, the stock weakens to levels close to the lows recorded in the stock recently.

Earlier this month, Shashua spoke at the CES technology conference. In the presentation he made, he referred to the company’s order backlog for the coming years, and said as a background to his words, that “we have a little less than $2 billion in revenue in 2025.” As a result, the stock jumped – presumably because investors estimated that the results in the reports would be closer to $2 billion. A short time later, the company published a report in which it was clarified that this is not an accurate indication of revenues in 2025, but a general statement about the size of the business today, compared to the backlog for the next 8 years (which is 24.5 billion dollars), and the stock weakened.

According to the forecast published today, even in 2026, Mobileye will not reach $2 billion in revenue. However, this may be a repeat of the practice that Mobilya followed last year: when it issued a forecast that disappointed investors but told them on the conference call that the forecast was deliberately conservative. In the end, the forecast was updated upwards throughout the year.