Mexican economy exceeded forecasts; grew 0.7%

The Mexican economy closed 2025 with a better performance than anticipated at the beginning of the year according to information published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), as well as opinions from the Ministry of Finance and analysts.

The gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.7 percent throughout the year according to the timely estimate published by the autonomous body.

“The Mexican economy closed 2025 with growth and with a recovery in the pace of activity towards the end of the year, exceeding the margin of the analysis consensus,” said Édgar Amador Zamora, head of the Treasury, when presenting the public finance reports for the fourth quarter of 2025.

He explained that during the fourth quarter of last year, economic activity would have recorded annual growth of 1.6 percent, which would lead to total growth of 0.7 in 2025 with seasonally adjusted figures.

The official stressed that the economic performance of 2025 “is even more valuable” if one takes into consideration that Mexico experienced a recessionary scenario and that the external environment was one of the most complex since the covid-19 pandemic.

Volatility

At the end of 2024, the growth prospects of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were 1.4 percent for 2025. However, once Donald Trump assumed his second term and announced his tariff policy, the international organization adjusted its forecast to a decrease of 0.3 percent. Meanwhile, the consensus of analysts estimated, at the beginning of 2025, a GDP growth of 1.12 percent, which was modified due to external uncertainty.

Amador Zamora pointed out that the boost to GDP came mainly from services, especially those linked to domestic demand. He also highlighted the recovery of activities such as wholesale trade.

He noted that industrial activity maintained a moderate performance, in line with its greater exposure to changes in United States trade policy and the appreciation of the peso against the dollar.

He explained that in 2025, “Mexico will consolidate itself as the main trading partner of the United States thanks to a marked growing use of the T-MEC.”

He noted that the proportion of Mexican exports to the United States that entered tariff-free under the T-MEC went from levels below 50 percent at the beginning of 2025 to close to 80 percent toward the end.

Invex analysts pointed out that the advance of 0.7 percent of GDP in 2025 was greater than forecasts such as those of the Bank of Mexico (BdeM), which was 0.3 percent. They highlighted that the result was also better than expected by the consensus of the most recent Citi survey, which was 0.4 percent.

“The upward surprise, above all, was driven by a 1.4 percent advance in tertiary activities, which represent close to 60 percent of GDP,” they noted.

Grupo Monex highlighted that the 1.6 percent advance represented its highest gain since the first quarter of 2024.

Furthermore, in its quarterly measurement, the Mexican economy accelerated by growing 0.8 percent compared to the previous quarter, thus avoiding technical recession, after the indicator contracted 0.3 percent compared to April-June.

The GDP expansion in October-December 2025 is explained by the quarterly growth in commerce and services, as well as industrial production of 0.9 percent each, although in agriculture, livestock and fishing it fell 2.7 percent compared to July-September 2025.

Reality confronts our adversaries more than arguments, highlights the President

Alonso Urrutia

Sent

Tijuana BC., President Claudia Shein-baum considered that the closure of the Mexican economy in 2025 was better than estimated because the behavior of the services sector and tourism contributed to the closure of November and December. He commented that in the end it was better than the predictions that the specialists had and “our adversaries (who) love to say the opposite. But reality confronts them, more than the arguments.”

On the other hand, he highlighted the relevance of the most recent trip by the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, to Washington, as he was able to meet with the Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, and with Ambassador Jamieson Greer, trade representative of the United States government. In those meetings, Sheinbaum said, there was already talk specifically about the review of the North American trade agreement, “the important thing is that the treaty is already being discussed, which had not been discussed. And we are optimistic in this sense.”

The date of a meeting with Trump is uncertain

In this context, regarding the possibility of a personal meeting with President Donald Trump, he commented that there is still no date but, he insisted, Mexico is very interested in the trade issue.

Regarding the behavior of the economy in 2025, the president expressed: “The Inegi published the economic closing of 2025; the country had a very good performance in November, December, it even closed better than all the analysts thought.”

He highlighted the strength of the peso, which, contrary to historical trends that a strong currency encourages imports and discourages exports, in this period there was an increase in sales from Mexico to the United States.

For the president, the strength of the peso, the increase in exports and the general behavior of the Mexican economy, even with the entire tariff situation, reflects that “Mexico is in a better position than many other countries, it speaks of the strength of the economy and the trust that exists in Mexico.”