Betting against Musk has become a ‘business’: Someone earned over 36,000 dollars at the betting site

As an example, a bet of about 10,000 dollars that Musk would not follow through on his threat to found a new political party after a conflict with US President Donald Trump, which allegedly brought him about a 10% return. Another big example is the bet against Musk’s announcement that Tesla will launch an ‘unsupervised’ version of its ‘Full Self-Driving’ software by the end of 2025. Bensoussan, according to reported statements, relies on Musk often ‘pressing the deadline’ in public, even though things are stretched in practice.

The texts that convey the story also mention a broader trend: prediction markets have exploded in popularity, especially around politics and big public promises, and they are also accompanied by controversies surrounding possible manipulations and insider trading. The Washington Post recently wrote about the growth of these platforms and the millions of dollars that spin on bets related to major political and social events, including platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

The point of this news is not that the markets are ‘infallible’, but that Musk’s reputation for over-optimistic forecasts has turned into something that people are trying to monetize. And yes, the ‘earnings of $36,000’ does not refer to one bet, but to several over time, which is why the numbers in the texts may seem contradictory at first.