Ukraine negotiations stall: “Vladimir Putin has no chance of ending the war now”

Representatives of the United States and Russia discussed the situation of the war in Ukraine again on Saturday in Miami. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Russia’s chief negotiator Kirill Dmitriev described the negotiations as “constructive”, according to news agencies.

However, no concrete steps forward were taken. The Ukrainian and Russian delegations will continue their own negotiations in Abu Dhabi either today, Sunday, or at the beginning of the week.

Military expert, Australian general evp Mick Ryan says there is a very simple reason why there has been so little progress.

“At the President of Russia Vladimir Putin there is no way to end the war now,” he writes in his newsletter on Sunday.

Ryan emphasizes that Putin has not achieved any of the goals he announced as the reasons for the war of aggression. Therefore, accepting any negotiated solution now would be a big problem for Putin.

“Over the past four years, Putin has turned Russia into a ‘war state’ by changing school curricula, Russian media, the defense industry, trading partners and other national efforts to redirect Russia into a long and drawn-out war effort. He needs to show his people some kind of return on that investment, and he can’t do that right now,” Ryan states.

This is precisely why, according to Ryan, Putin has set the bar for a possible cease-fire very high and demands the handover of the entire Donbas to Russia and the blocking of Ukraine’s NATO membership.

“Putin knows that these together are unacceptable for Ukraine and Europe, and that’s why he can keep fighting. He’s deliberately sabotaging negotiations so the fighting can continue,” Ryan commented.

The biggest problem is Donald Trump

Vladimir Putin’s big problem, according to the expert, is the US president Donald Trump. Ryan estimates that the US president will help Russia whenever possible. However, according to him, Putin is afraid of Trump’s reaction to Russia’s actions.

Having served as US Secretary of State during Trump’s first presidential term Mike Pompeon the situational analysis is similar. He says Italian In an interview with La Stampathat the Trump administration must make Putin understand that Russia cannot hold onto the territories of Ukraine.

“The war can only end if Trump convinces Putin that the costs are greater than the benefits,” he commented.

“I see no evidence that Moscow wants peace and an end to the conflict on terms other than those it sought to achieve through a war of aggression. Putin has not been able to take what he wants militarily, so why should it be given to him at the negotiating table,” Pompeo continues.

The EU is planning a new attack

The European Union is currently planning new sanctions against Russia. News agency Bloomberg according to this, it is about replacing the Russian crude oil price ceiling with a complete ban on maritime transport services. The new sanction would prohibit all European companies from providing the insurance and transportation services needed to transport Russian oil.

This would be a heavy blow to the Russian economy, which is weighed down by weak oil and gas revenues. The Russian Ministry of Finance has estimated the budget deficit to be three billion dollars in January alone.

“Due to the development of the war years, however, both external and internal risks have increased considerably, and an economic recession is quite possible. The Russian economy is not doing well,” a senior adviser at the Bank of Finland Laura Solanko summed up the situation on his blog in January.

Senior economist at the Bank of Finland Heli Simola on the other hand, has estimated that specifically oil-related shocks can weaken the Russian economy even more.

“The economy could drift into recession and the national budget deficit could deepen. Then Russia would have to make even more difficult choices to continue the war in Ukraine,” he analyzed in December.