IA, difficult start to the year between bubble and reorganization

AI bubbleis it starting to explode? Since the beginning of the year the technology sector is undergoing shocks world marketsquestioned by doubts about his stratospheric valuations and on profitability of his investments. Il Nasdaqthe American index that groups together the main ones technology stocks Americans, has lost over 2.50% since the beginning of the week, despite yesterday’s rebound (+2.18%). In recent days, the results of several giants, such as Amazon, Alphabet o Microsoftwere poorly received by investorscausing hundreds of billions of dollars in valuation to disappear.

A trigger this week was an announcement Tuesday by the start-up Anthropicbehind the conversational agent Claudeof a new tool artificial intelligence capable of handling legal and research tasks, threatening the economic model of the professional software of these sectors.

The actions of their publishers have collapsed in Europa and in United States. “Markets have started to take this into account AI capabilities to threaten economic models, with a social cost significant”, observes Cyrille Collet, director of quantitative management of Cpram shares. In the following days there was a contagion to the rest of the technology sector. “Many investors they preferred to throw the baby out with the bathwater,” observes Kevin Thozet, a member of Carmignac’s investment committee, interviewed by AFP. This adds to growing concerns about capabilities of the technology giants to make their massifs profitable investments in AIespecially as they increasingly finance them getting into debtwhereas previously they used their own liquidity. “This can increase the risks for the entire system if one of them falters”, explains Kevin Thozet.

Investments and physical constraints

“Twelve months ago, it was expected that Amazon, Google e Microsoft invested 244 billion dollars. Today, this figure rises to $494 billion. It is no wonder that markets are reluctant to finance”, summarizes the Bespoke fund in a note. Added to this are “the physical constraints: there will be enough electricity for i data center or for i chip?”, explains Vincent Juvyns, an analyst at Ing. to AFP.

The “magnificent seven” in free fall

Since the beginning of the year, the “seven magnificent“, nickname given to the big names of technology sector which until then had supported the market, are in free fall: the Microsoft shares recorded a loss of approximately 20%, Amazon by 15% e Alphabetthe parent company of Googleby 12%. THE technology stocks they also suffer the repercussions of Donald Trump’s politicswhich increases thegeopolitical uncertainty, monetary (with a decline in the dollar for several months) ed economical. The investors are moving towards other regions, such asEuropa. Since the beginning of February, the Paris benchmark CAC 40 index and London’s FTSE 100 are up just over 1%. This movement had already been observed in early 2025 and had reached its peak with the announcement of customs duties against China’s trading partners. United States. Edmond de Rothschild analysts also note “a sharp sector rotation and with as its main victim the technology sector“, abandoned by investors while many other sectors see theirs actions on the rise.

Is this the beginning of a collapse?

Is this the beginning of a collapse? “You have to stay calm. Like every time there is overheating, it is also a way for the investors to realize their profits on stocks that have nevertheless gained a lot”, tempers Vincent Juvyns. “These sales movements can seem almost apocalyptic”, recognizes Nancy Tengler, of Laffer Tengler Investments, who adds: “We must remember that, in the short term, they are the algorithms hey hedge funds to fuel these violent movements”. More generally, “the markets are moving from a situation in which ‘everyone wins’ to a more contrasted panorama, in which it is realized that there will be winners and losers” dell’IA“and we need to identify them”, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank.