What will happen to inflation in February? The forecasts of the specialists and how Argentina was in the regional ranking

He did not achieve changes in his regional position although with the data of 2025 (31,5%), improved its global position: in the last two years, went from having the highest inflation in the world to the sixth.

In 2023, it had the highest rate in the last 32 yearssince the hyper of 1990, when it reached 1.344%. The last year of the government of Alberto Fernandez record 211,4%the highest number in the world. In 2024, it closed with the third highest inflationbehind Syriacon 120%; y Zimbabwe y South Sudanwho shared second place, with 115%. Meanwhile, last year, she came sixthbehind Venezuela (269,9%), South Sudan (97,5%), Zimbabwe (89%), Sudan (87,2%) e Iran (42,4%).

But, with the inflationary acceleration of recent months, 2026 started without changes at the regional level for Argentina, which in January had the second largest increase in Latin America, behind Venezuelawhich once again topped the podium, with a year-on-year increase of 556%. It should be noted that there is no official monthly figure for that country. In the midst of the current crisis, which deepened with the capture of Maduro, reports show the sharp increase in prices of different economic goods in the first month of the year.

Third in the regional list was Boliviacon 1,31% monthly and 19,64% progress in the last 12 months. And Colombia was positioned fourthcon 1,18% monthly and 5,35% interannual.

Below, below the 1% level, Uruguay were locatedcon 0,92% in January and 3,46% interannual; Paraguaycon 0,6% last month and 2,7% in the last 12; Chilecon 0,4% monthly and 2,8% interannual; Ecuadorcon 0,37% y 2,44%respectively; Brazilcon 0,20% y 4,50%; y Perucon 0,10% y 1,70%.

Going forward, analysts estimate that inflation will remain above 2% until April. For February, the most optimistic consulting firms predict that it will be between 2,3% y 2,5%while those that project greater increases estimate 2,8% y 2,9%. If these initial forecasts are confirmed, which will be adjusted as the days go by, February’s data would be less than or equal to January’s.

For Equilibra, the monthly CPI will be 2.3%. For Orlando Ferreres & Asociados, it will give 2.5%. Meanwhile, EcoGo projects 2.7% y Analytica believes it will be 2.8% or 2.9%. Other firms such as C&T Advisors Economical y Freedom & Progress They are attentive to the evolution of meat prices and private school fees to make their forecasts.

Beyond the differences, they all agree that the disinflation process will not be linear and that it will take longer than expected, as well as that the data that will be known on March 12 will impact the increase in rates after the change in the energy subsidy scheme.

Prices at the meat counter will also be keywhich have a high impact on the CPI. In January, they rose to 15%although the butcher shops seek to contain the increase and not pass it on in its entirety, amid the decline in sales they are experiencing.

In that sense, What happens with the food and beverage sector will be keywhich continues to be the one with the greatest weight in the current methodology that the Government decided to maintain, after postponing the implementation of the new one after the controversy generated by the departure of Marco Lavagna from INDEC.