In the US, inflation slowed to 2.4%: below analysts’ expectations

Gli United Statesthey started the year with a clearslowdown in inflation: i consumer pricesthey have in fact increased by2.4% on an annual basisin January against 2.7% in the previous month and below analysts’ estimates, which expected +2.5% per year.

Although they have strengthened on thefutures marketthe bets of a thirdrate cut in June (date all’83%), Wall Streetit opened negative and the declines are becoming more pronounced. The question ofcost of livinghowever, it remains central to the United States. Trump promised to restore thepurchasing power of Americans. But even if less rapidly, prices continue to increase and make them fear losing votes in theelectionsexpected at the end of the year.

The impact of customs duties and the slowdown in prices

In fact, despite his reassurances (inflation “is not a problem”), prices increased even less rapidly in April 2025 (+2.3% on an annual basis), period corresponding to the US president’s announcement of an increase incustoms dutieson imported products. The surprise slowdown observed in January “reinforces our belief that tariff-related increases in goods prices are now behind us,” Bernard Yaros of Orxford Economics said in a note.

Sectoral dynamics: declines and increases

This braking is influenced in particular byfuel drop (-7,5%in January on an annual basis). Consumers also benefit from a drop in the price ofused cars (-2%). On the other hand, gas and electricity bills have seen significant increases (respectively+9,8% e +6,3%on an annual basis). The price of eggs, which had skyrocketed last year due to a drop in production due to avian flu, has fallen by about34%compared to January 2025. Overall, however, ifood productsrecorded an increase in2,9%. Earlier this year, theairlinesthey also significantly increased the price of tickets (+6.5% on a monthly basis).

The Fed’s wait-and-see position and mixed signals

This is because, according to what Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University, explains, the combination of data onrelatively low inflationand data onpositive employmentearlier this week had “a see-sawing effect on expectations ofrate cutsgiving to both the hawks and the doves” ofFedthe possibility of cutting rates or keeping them unchanged. The performance ofTreasury securitiestwo-year rate, which reflects interest rate expectations, fell slightly on the back of price data. “I don’t think this will push the Fed to act more quickly,” Jonathan Hill, head of US inflation strategy at Barclays, told the FT. “The data is sending usmixed signals“. Economists have indeed welcomed thedecline in inflationbut they warned that it could still be distorted by the shutdown. ThereCentral bankit kept rates between 3.5% and 3.75%, after three consecutive quarter-point reductions. Employment data showed that the economy created130,000 jobslast month, indicating aregaining momentum.

Future prospects and the 2% target

But caution is a must as theinflationcontinued to remain above the2% annual targetfixed byFed. Officials continue to express concern about thejob market. La consumer spendingit held up pretty well last year. The central bank faces changing dynamics this year, with a rotating group of regional presidents appearing to lean towards a more aggressive stance infight against inflation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday that he sees a “investment boom” as a favorable wind, while inflation will return to the Fed’s target “in the middle of this year”. Now the update on theprices of personal consumption expensesof the Department of Commerce.