Encouraged by the White House: the wealthy Canadian province that demands independence

Alberta is expected to hold a referendum on secession from Canada later this year, and the separatists in the province see Trump as a powerful ally in achieving their goal of shaking Canada’s liberal politics, and increasing oil production – and not an obstacle to their independence, even if it is likely that they will not establish an independent state.

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An independent Alberta is a faint but threatening possibility for Canada. The Western Province is a resource powerhouse, holding most of Canada’s crude oil. Only Saudi Arabia and Venezuela hold larger reserves of crude oil.

Trump administration officials welcome leaders of Alberta’s independence movement to Washington for energy and trade talks. Trump’s allies, including Steve Bannon, have encouraged talks about Alberta’s independence, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant recently backed the movement, saying: “People want sovereignty.”

Trump showed interest

Even before Trump’s inauguration last year, the president showed interest in Alberta. For two days in Florida last January, the then-president-elect discussed energy cooperation with Alberta’s conservative leader, Premier Danielle Smith, which later enabled a referendum.

Mitch Sylvester – who initiated the referendum, explained his conclusion from a meeting with officials of the US State Department: “I believe they will welcome a free and independent Alberta.”

Trump himself did not comment on the issue of Alberta’s withdrawal. In response to questions from the Wall Street Journal, a White House official said that “government officials have met with several groups from civil society. No support or commitments have been expressed.”

Alberta is known as “Canada’s Texas”, and its size is similar to its counterpart in the USA. It borders Montana, and has fertile prairies as well as ski resorts in the Rocky Mountains in Banff. At its northern border, it spreads out into frozen and desolate ice regions, rich in ‘oil sands’ that produce an amount of crude oil that is nine times greater than in Alaska.

After more than a decade of liberal prime ministers in Canada, Alberta – politically conservative – is getting tired of its position as a minority in Ottawa and sending money east to population centers like Toronto and Montreal, which are ideologically more similar to the most “blue” (liberal) cities in the US. Separatists are appealing to the deep frustration of Albertans who feel they pay taxes, but are not properly represented.

The polls in Alberta hadn’t even closed yet when Premier Mark Carney’s Liberal Party was declared the winner of last April’s election, reinforcing a sense of political impotence in the province. The next day, Smith, Alberta’s premier, accused the federal government of taking “hostile actions against Alberta” that were reflected in regulations on oil production. She initiated a process to change regulations to halve the number of signatures required to hold a referendum.

Carney, who grew up in Alberta but was not publicly involved in the separatist movement, later relented, softening some regulations that Smith opposed. Smith welcomed it. Still, the position of the head of the province regarding independence remains ambiguous: “I believe in the sovereignty of Alberta within a united Canada.”

Vauxhall, an Alberta city 150 miles southeast of Calgary, calls itself the “Potato Capital of the West,” but its potato fields smell of oil because they’re also home to drilling rigs.

On a recent Wednesday evening, around 60 farmers in visor hats joined peers in their 20s with piercings at Vauxhall Community Center to sign Sylvester’s referendum petition. “Can anyone remember a time when the government passed a law that made you rich?” Sylvester asked, going through a long list of grievances against Ottawa regarding taxes, energy, immigration and gun control, which he said would disappear when there was independence. “Canada runs on money from Alberta,” he said.

30% support

Sylvester, a 70-year-old small-town resident, became active in right-wing political circles after the authorities closed down his sports store during the coronavirus pandemic. Sylvester now leads a pro-independence group, called Stay Free Alberta, and has until May 2 to collect 177,732 signatures supporting a referendum, a number equal to 10% of Alberta’s eligible voters. This is a low goal, and will likely be achieved.

Winning a referendum, which may take place in October, is a more difficult task than putting the question to a vote; Polls indicate that support for independence for Alberta is close to 30%, and Polymarket betting estimates the chances of a yes vote at only 13%. Opposition to independence, and to Trump, is very strong in Alberta’s urban communities.

“You will have to bear the costs”

Despite Alberta’s legitimate disputes with Ottawa over federal spending and policies that hold back its oil production, a withdrawal would be a net negative, said the province’s former premier, Jason Kenney. “The truth is, if Alberta becomes an independent country, it will have to bear all kinds of costs,” he said, from recreating the federal bureaucracy to negotiating commodity export deals, including with the rest of Canada.

Almost all Alberta lands are governed by treaties with Canada’s indigenous peoples, and their tribal leaders call the push for independence a political fantasy. It is “one of the most significant attacks on our art and our way of life” in generations, said Chief Sheldon Sunshine of the Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation, who donned an eagle-feather war hat last month to join chiefs representing all 48 Alberta indigenous nations who gathered to condemn the separatists. The chief also called on Washington to back off: “We take this very seriously,” he said. “We saw what happened in Venezuela, we hear the rhetoric regarding Greenland.”

In the 1990s, Canadian economist Patrick Grady cooled enthusiasm for independence, with calculations that showed that by leaving, “Quebec would be hit much harder than the rest of Canada.” Today, Grady says the situation is reversed, because Canada’s economy depends on Alberta.

Kenny, the former provincial governor, predicts Trump will eventually support retirement — and unwittingly stir up a patriotic spirit. “If it happens, it’s good for Canada,” he said.