MBS: Exchange rates will increase 2.5-3% this year

According to the latest report of MB Securities (MBS), the weakening trend of the USD will be the main supporting factor for the exchange rate this year. The DXY index (USD strength) is forecast to fall to 95 points from mid-2026, while most major currencies such as Japanese yen, British pound and EUR are expected to increase in price.

With supporting factors, MBS’s analysis team estimates that the dong will be more stable in 2026 and only lose about 2.5-3% compared to the USD.

In fact, the greenback fell to nearly its 4-year low (96.19 points) at the end of January, losing 2.1% compared to the beginning of the year. This development occurred after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged and implemented a “rate check” move at its New York branch. Investors see this as a signal that the US and Japan may intervene in the currency market to prevent the yen’s decline.

A “rate check” is a test in which the Fed asks brokers and banks what rate they might charge if it buys or sells foreign currency.

In addition, the USD’s devaluation trend is even more evident after President Trump’s statement that the value of the greenback is “very good”. This is a signal that the White House accepts the weakness of the USD, promoting sell-off activities of this currency.

Thanks to reduced international pressure, the domestic foreign exchange market has “breathed easier”. The interbank exchange rate at the end of January decreased by 0.9%, to 26,025 VND per USD – the lowest since June 2025. On the free market, the USD price on the free market also decreased by 2.6% compared to the beginning of the year, currently around 26,225 VND per USD.

However, MBS’s analysis team warns that pressure on the dong remains. Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of more than 20 billion USD last year, but most of it came from the FDI sector while the domestic business sector had a deficit of nearly 30 billion USD. This shows that domestic demand for USD is still very large.

This year, imports are forecast to continue to increase to serve the production expansion cycle. In addition, international gold prices may continue to maintain above 5,000 USD an ounce in the near future due to geopolitical instability and increased demand for safe assets. The increased demand for gold imports following the world trend will create more pressure on the domestic exchange rate at some point.