El Nino may appear in the second half of this year

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that the possibility of El Nino forming in the Pacific increased from 40% in June to 60% in September, while the Australian Meteorological Department predicted this phenomenon could develop from June. The Japan Meteorological Agency said that there is a 60% chance of El Nino occurring in the summer.

El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate cycle driven by fluctuations in ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. These conditions cause knock-on effects across the globe, affecting everything from rainfall, drought, storms, and heat waves.

ENSO experiences three phases including El Nino (warm phase), La Nina (cold phase) and neutral phase. The world is in the final stages of La Nina. NOAA models show a 60% chance of transitioning to a neutral phase during February-April, which could then continue into El Nino.

“There are signs that La Nina is weakening, and neutral ENSO conditions will return in the next few months,” said Jason Nicholls, a forecaster at AccuWeather. “Drought is already starting to appear in some parts of southeastern Australia and a transition to El Nino could make the situation worse, causing problems for the next growing season.”

El Nino tends to increase global temperatures by about 0.2 degrees Celsius, causing extreme weather phenomena such as droughts and floods. In a world already warming due to greenhouse gases, El Nino could add a temperature “kick”, increasing the likelihood of record heat.

2025 remains one of the hottest years ever recorded globally despite ending in La Nina with its cooling effects. Without that cooling effect, plus the warming effect of El Nino, 2026 and 2027 will be especially hot. The past 11 years have been the hottest 11 years in history. Therefore, if El Nino appears, it is likely that 2026 and 2027 will also join this list.

In addition to increasing average global temperatures, El Nino will bring widespread changes in weather. Experts predict increased rainfall with the risk of flooding in the southern US and Europe, while the northern US and Canada will be drier and warmer than normal. El Nino weakens the Atlantic hurricane season but increases storm activity in the central and eastern Pacific.