A blow to Orban: an escalation in the fateful election campaign

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is facing the most serious political threat he has ever known, and is close to losing his rule after 15 years in office. Against this background, this week he escalated the conflict with Ukraine and accused Kyiv of planning to damage Hungary’s energy infrastructure. At the same time, he announced unusual measures in the field, with the deployment of soldiers near central energy facilities, in a move that was seen as unusual especially in the run-up to the elections.

In a video he posted online yesterday X After a meeting of the Hungarian Defense Council, Orban said that he had heard from the briefings of the national security services that Ukraine was “preparing for further actions aimed at disrupting the activity of Hungary’s energy system.” According to him, this is the pressure that the Ukrainian government exerts on Budapest and Bratislava through what he called an “oil blockade”.

At the heart of the dispute is the Druzhba oil pipeline, the main route for the transfer of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, which still depend on it and are based on it, unlike the other EU countries. Orban claimed that Kiev is deliberately delaying the re-opening of the pipeline and that the suspension of the oil flow since January 27 is a political move. On the other hand, the authorities in Ukraine said that the pipeline, in the territory of Ukraine, was damaged by a Russian airstrike at the end of January and that it is still being repaired. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not immediately respond to the accusations either, and there was no indication that Ukraine was planning to attack infrastructure in Hungary – contrary to Orban’s words.

In response to the threats that he says are posed to the energy system, Orban announced that he ordered the strengthening of the protection of critical infrastructures. Soldiers and military equipment have been stationed near central energy facilities, police will be reinforced around power plants, distribution stations and control centers, and in a district in the northeast of the country, on the border with Ukraine, a ban on the flight of unmanned aircraft has been imposed. The unusual military deployment is causing concern among many in Hungary against the background of the approaching elections, at a critical time.

The confrontation takes place against a background of wider tensions between Budapest and Kyiv and between Orban and the European Union institutions. Hungary last week vetoed a 90 billion euro loan from the European Union to Ukraine, and also blocked the 20th package of sanctions against Moscow. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadpole said that he was amazed by the Hungarian position and added that “it is wrong to use the struggle for freedom to betray European sovereignty.”

At the same time, Ukrainian attacks on oil facilities in Russia, including a section of the Druzhba pipeline on Russian territory, reportedly led to a reduction of about 250,000 barrels per day in the flow of oil into the general system. Ukraine itself is facing a severe shortage of electricity following increased Russian attacks on its electricity and gas grids, and was forced to increase electricity imports from European countries, including Hungary and Slovakia. Both countries have threatened to cut off emergency power supplies to Ukraine – until the pipeline is reopened, which Ukraine says will take some time.

The security storm is integrated into the upcoming election system. Orban, who has been in power for 15 years and seeks to secure another term, is facing his biggest political challenge from his political rival Peter Magyar, who heads the “Tisa” party, which was only established in 2024. A survey by the Median Institute published this week indicates a dramatic 20% advantage for “Tisa” among certain voters, compared to a gap of only 12% in January.

According to the survey, Tisa gets 55% of the voters who decided, while the ruling party “Fidesh” gets only 35%. In the general population, support for “Tisa” stands at 42% compared to 31% for “Fidesh”. This is an institute with a strong track record of accurate predictions in Hungary, which also correctly predicted Orban’s sweeping victory four years ago.

Orban’s critics claim that the escalation of the conflict with Ukraine is intended to convince the public that Hungary is under threat, in the midst of a close election campaign. Magyar himself accused Orban of nepotism and corruption, and claimed that after 16 years in power he is responsible for the economic difficulties and the rise in prices, especially in fuel. According to him, instead of dealing with the hardships of citizens and businesses, Orban chooses to mislead, provoke and impose on the country one of the highest taxes in Europe, according to him.

The Parliament in Hungary has 199 members, of which 106 are directly elected in the districts and 93 from national lists. According to the law, a party must pass the 5% threshold to enter parliament. Apart from the two major parties, only the far-right party “Moldatnu” approaches this threshold according to the latest survey.