Center-right in difficulty in the polls, Yes and No parity in the referendum

Supermedia of today photographs a situation in which, for the first time in a long time, we can talk about a center-right in difficulty. This is true both on the level of voting intentions to the parties, with the coalition which overall loses 1.2% in two weeks, both on that of referendumwhere the margin of the Yes over Nonow reduced to 2.4 points, with several institutions starting to permanently take over one equalitywhen not even the overtaking No. A difficulty, that of the centre-right, which can only be attributed in part to the presence of Vannacci’s new party, National Futuresubstantially stable compared to two weeks ago.

This, in detail, is the Supermedia list: FDI 29.1 (-0.6) PD 22.1 (=) M5S 11.8 (-0.2) Forza Italia 8.9 (-0.2) Lega 7.0 (-0.4) Greens/Left 6.7 (+0.4) Action 3.4 (+0.2) National Future 3.0 (+0.1) Italia Viva 2.2 (-0.1) +Europa 1.6 (-0.1) We Moderates 1.1 (=)* (not detected by Tecné) This is the Supermedia Coalitions 2022: Centre-right 46.0 (-1.2) Centre-left 30.4 (+0.3) M5S 11.8 (-0.2) Third Pole 5.7 (+0.2) Others 6.1 (+0.8) This, however, Supermedia constitutional referendum: Yes 51.2 (-1.7) No 48.8 (+1.7) NB: the variations in brackets indicate the deviation compared to the Superaverage of two weeks ago (12 February 2025) and, for the constitutional referendum, of one week ago (19 February 2026).

Supermedia methodological note

NOTE: The Supermedia Youtrend/Agi it’s one weighted average of the national polls on voting intentions. Today’s weighting, which includes polls taken from February 12th to February 25th, was carried out on February 26th based on the sample consistencyfrom the date of creation and of data collection method. I surveys considered they were created by the institutes EMG (publication date: 20 February), Eumetra (19 February), Ixe’ (23 February), Only Numbers (17 February), SWG (16 and 23 February), Tecné (14 February) and Youtrend (20 February). For the constitutional referendum: Demopolis (release date: February 20), EMG (February 12 and 20), Eumetra (February 19), Ixe’ (February 23), Only Numbers (February 17), SWG (February 16), Tecné (February 14) and Youtrend (February 20). There detailed methodological note of each survey considered is available on official website www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it.