In the midst of the political crisis over the Epstein case, Keir Starmer’s government faces a key election in Great Britain

In the midst of the enormous crisis royal and politics that exists in Great Britain due to the Epstein case, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and his Labor party are risking their future this Thursday in a by-election, in the traditional Labor “red zone” in the north of the kingdom.

In Gorton and Denton, near Manchester, Labor is besieged by Reform, Nigel Farage’s populist far-right party, and the Green party, in a formerly traditionally Labor seat.

Polls place the Labor Party in a technical draw until now. They have already started voting.

The Gorton and Denton by-elections are the biggest electoral test to date for Starmer, sooner than disastrous results are predicted for the Labor Party in the local elections in May.

If Labor loses, it will again highlight Starmer’s decision to prevent Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, from running for the seat. Starmer blocked him from being a candidate when he is one of the most popular Labor leaders in the country.

Regardless of the outcome, this has major implications for Starmer’s tenure, but also for the broader political landscape.

A victory for Reform UK’s anti-immigrant populist candidate Matt Goodwin would be the biggest sign yet that Nigel Farage’s lead in the polls reflects true voting intentions, rather than simply a symbol of dissatisfaction with the government.

Goodwin rarely talks about Reform UK politics or local issues. He has repeatedly turned the fight into a referendum on Starmer’s leadership.

Gorton and Denton is ranked 440th on Reform’s list of candidates, according to an inside source. The party won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election almost a year ago by just six votes.

A victory in this area would indicate that he maintains his momentum. Reform said it expected at least 1,000 activists to turn out to vote, especially non-voters who have been key to other by-election victories.

Goodwin is a divisive and online candidate, with family roots in Manchester. But he spent most of his adult life in the south-east of England.

A Reform victory would destroy Labor strategists’ argument that progressives will unite to defeat reformers when they know how to vote tactically.

there would be Fierce recriminations between Labor and Greens. The “Greens” could argue, if they come in second place, that it was Labor who divided the progressive vote and prevented the Green victory. If Labor comes third, it is hard to see how Starmer will survive much longer as prime minister if he cannot unite progressives against candidates like Goodwin.

A Green victory could be the most catastrophic outcome for Starmer’s leadership and would demonstrate that the Greens are a serious progressive force, not a protest vote.

It would also show that Labor does not automatically benefit from an anti-reform alliance. It would make MPs running for urban seats fear the threat from the Greens, which is likely to be compounded by the results of the local elections in London.

This is one of the most ethnically diverse areas of Manchester. According to census data, more than half of Longsight’s residents are Muslim. It has the lowest percentage of white residents in the city (23%) and the largest number of non-English speaking residents (about 371 people).

To attract these voters, who are part of the Gorton and Denton constituency and who will go to the polls this Thursday, the Green Party has been publishing material in languages ​​​​such as Urdu and Bengali, which urges residents to “punish” the Labor Party for Gaza. Many of the voters are of Pakistani, Kashmiri or Indian origin.

British polls and bookmakers repeatedly give the Greens a lead. A victory would suggest that Hannah Spencer’s enthusiastic campaign means they could take advantage of a surge in disillusioned progressive voters.

Green coalition could attract angry former Labor voters, They want to beat up Starmer. Many, but not all, of them are from the area’s large Muslim community, as well as students and young professionals from Levenshulme.

Labour’s attacks on the Greens have been fierce, both over their drugs policy, alleging that the party is willing to sell legalized drugs to teenagers, and over their defense policy, referring to the party as “Putin’s useful idiots”.

The Greens have repeatedly mobilized large groups of activists and have had to work banking from scratch.

They have sent handwritten letters to all voters in the constituency, completed by 300 volunteers. Activists have campaigned outside mosques during prayers, focusing on the Labor Party’s performance in Gaza, and have distributed leaflets in several languages.

Some aspects of the Greens’ campaign have sparked controversy, such as the use of images of Starmer meeting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in advertisements aimed at the area’s Muslim community.

The strength of the Greens’ campaign has allowed the party to argue that it is Labor that risks splitting the vote and letting in the reformist candidate.

If Labor is relegated to third place, there would be recriminations for Starmer. But if reformism wins and the Greens come in second, that would raise concerns on the progressive left about which party is the best rival to the populist right.