Conflict in Iran can push up oil, gold, and USD prices

On the morning of March 28, the US Army and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a campaign to attack Iran, targeting defense and intelligence facilities and private homes of high-ranking officials and generals. Tehran launched missiles in response toward Israel.

Iran is a major oil producer and is located across the Arabian Peninsula across the Strait of Hormuz – through which about 20% of global oil supply passes. Therefore, the conflict could cause global oil output to decrease and push up prices, according to experts.

Source of Reuters said that a number of major oil and gas corporations and leading trading companies have temporarily stopped shipping crude oil and fuel through the Strait of Hormuz.

At the end of the trading session on Friday (March 27), Brent oil reached about 73 USD per barrel, up 20% since the beginning of the year. While WTI oil trades around 67 USD per barrel. According to William Jackson, chief emerging market economist at Capital Economics, even if the conflict is brought under control soon, Brent oil prices could still rise to about 80 USD per barrel, the peak during the 12-day clash in Iran in June 2025.

If the situation lasts longer and affects supply, it could cause the price to spike to about 100 USD. At that time, global inflation is likely to increase by 0.6-0.7 percentage points.

Mr. Warren Patterson, Chief Commodity Analyst at investment bank ING (Netherlands), also said that similar short and targeted attacks in the middle of last year could cause oil prices to increase to about 80 USD per barrel. If there is no oil supply disruption, the price increase will be short-lived.

The worse scenario is that the US and Israeli raids are larger in scale than last year, causing Tehran to retaliate fiercely. This not only endangers oil supplies from Iran but also affects oil flows from the Persian Gulf, passing through the Strait of Hormuz. That scenario puts 9 million barrels of crude oil and 6 million barrels of oil products transported here every day at risk.

Mr. Warren Patterson warned that the global oil market is not as abundant as expected. Supply disruptions from Kazakhstan at the beginning of the year caused production to tighten. Along with that, the reluctance of some parties to import Russian oil also creates more pressure on the unsanctioned oil market.

Faced with this situation, he said that if the Strait of Hormuz is partially disrupted, including if oil tankers are attacked or captured, Brent oil prices could jump to $100 initially, then stabilize at $80-90 per barrel. Only if this strait is completely blocked will the price reach 140 USD per barrel but it is unlikely to happen.

Not only oil, gold prices are expected to continue to rise as investors rush to buy. Since the beginning of the year, this precious metal has increased by 22%. Kitco’s survey shows that Wall Street and individual investors agree that gold will increase in price next week.

Conflict could also increase demand for US Treasury bonds. However, Bitcoin does not benefit. According to Reutersthis cryptocurrency is no longer considered a safe haven, falling 2% on March 28 and losing more than 25% of its value in the past two months.

The currency market will also inevitably fluctuate. According to experts, the evolution of the USD depends on the level of the conflict. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) points out that the USD index fell about 1% during the attack in June. But the decrease was short-lived and reversed after 3-4 days.

CBA believes that in the current context, the extent of the decline will depend on the scale and duration of the conflict. “If it lasts long and disrupts oil supply, the USD will increase in price compared to most other currencies, except the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The US is a net energy exporter, so it will benefit from rising oil and gas prices due to supply disruption,” said the CBA expert group.

Seen as a safe haven during turbulent times, the Swiss franc is expected to continue to experience upward pressure. Since the beginning of the year, this currency has increased by 3% against the USD. Meanwhile, the Israeli shekel may witness the opposite situation.

The currency dropped 5% at the beginning of the conflict in June 2025 and also reacted after Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April 2024 and when Iran launched missiles at Israel in October of the same year. All of these events took place in a short time, so the shekel also recovered quickly.