‘This is the objective of Israel and the USA’. The Israeli expert speaks

Per Kobi Michaelsenior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (Inss) at Tel Aviv University and analyst at the Misgav Institute, contacted by Adnkronos, the Israeli priority is clear: to prevent Iran from returning to represent an existential threat, on a nuclear and ballistic level. Regime change is a desired outcome, but it cannot be imposed from the outside: it depends on the ability of the Iranian people to organize themselves and exploit the military weakening of the system. Meanwhile, he warns, the possible involvement of the Gulf monarchies could transform the escalation into a real regional coalition against Tehran.

Professor, what do you think is the endgame of Israel and the United States? Is the goal regime change?

I believe that the desired outcome is certainly a change of regime. However, it does not depend only on Israel and the United States. It depends first of all on the Iranian people and their ability to organize a structured opposition, with an effective leadership capable of exploiting the dynamic that Israel and the United States are creating at the moment to overthrow the regime and replace it.

That said, the most realistic goal of the military campaign is to dismantle the Iranian threat: to deny Tehran strategic military capabilities, first nuclear, then ballistic missile capabilities, and to weaken the regime so profoundly that it is unable to re-establish the threat against Israel and the region.

For Israel, the central issue is to ensure that Iran does not once again pose an existential threat, whether nuclear or ballistic. If this weakening generates an internal dynamic capable of leading the Iranians to do the rest, so much the better. But the priority is to eliminate the threat.

The Pasdaran have built a parallel system of power and an autonomous economy over decades. Is there a civil society, an administrative or military apparatus capable of replacing them today?

Yes, I believe it exists. We are talking about a country with over 90 million inhabitants. Although millions of people are integrated into the regime’s system, the vast majority are not. However, it requires very effective and well-organized leadership.

I believe that some of this leadership should also emerge from Iran’s institutional ranks, particularly from the regular armed forces, which are less radical than the Revolutionary Guards. Within them there are figures capable of temporarily assuming leadership of the country. But there are also many other skilled people in Iranian society.

We are only on the second day of the military campaign. In my opinion it will last weeks. After a week or two of very intense pressure, the regime could find itself in an extremely problematic situation. If at that moment the Iranian people are ready, organized and determined, regime change will become a real possibility.

In recent days, Iran has also struck countries in the region, from the Gulf monarchies to Jordan, to the point of threatening other actors. Is it a real capacity for destabilization or just an attempt to show strength?

It’s not just the Gulf region. Iran has also fired missiles at British bases in Cyprus and may target other countries it sees as cooperating with the United States and Israel. He even threatened Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Tehran is trying to widen the conflict to increase pressure on Washington, in the hope of forcing it to stop the military campaign. But I think the result will be the opposite. By attacking Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, it risks pushing them to join militarily with Israel and the United States.

So do you see a scenario in which these countries participate not only defensively but also offensively?

Yes, absolutely yes. If Iran continues to hit them with hundreds of missiles and drones, it will no longer be symbolic attacks but large-scale aggression. In that case, they could openly join the military operation against Iran.

Massive attacks against Qatar, the Emirates or Saudi Arabia could lead to the formation of a real regional coalition. Paradoxically, the Iranian attempt to widen the conflict could accelerate the regime’s isolation.

Can Iran sustain this pressure for weeks?

As for ballistic missiles, I believe that Iran’s capability will be drastically reduced in a few days. The launchers are the key point: without launchers they can’t use the missiles. Many have already been destroyed, others are neutralized as they are exposed for launch.

Compared to previous escalations, the number of missiles launched is already lower. Iran seeks to use them tactically, one or two at a time, to keep the Israeli population under stress and test defense systems. But overall capacity is declining.

The situation is different for the Gulf countries, which are geographically very close to Iran: against them they can use drones, cruise missiles and rockets, without the need for long-range ballistic systems.

However, if they continue to attack the Gulf countries, I believe we will see the emergence of a regional coalition against Tehran. (by Giorgio Rutelli)