The demographic crisis casts a shadow over Ukraine’s future

Olena Bilozerska and her husband always wanted children and the two were ready for the journey of parenthood in 2014, when she was 34 years old. However, conflict broke out that same year in the Donbass region, eastern Ukraine, forcing the couple to join the war and abandon their plans.

Bilozerska returned when she was 41 years old and was told by her doctor that her chance of having children was only about 5%. She missed the most favorable time to become a mother because she went to war. Her doctor recommended using donated eggs, but she decided to undergo fertility treatment.

To maximize the success of in vitro fertilization, doctors usually try to retrieve 10-15 eggs per session. They only retrieved one egg in Bilozerska’s case and had to immediately warn that the possibility of a healthy egg was very low and the risk of failure was very high.

Bilozerska and her husband went through a series of days of “mental torture” waiting to see if the embryo would survive or not. As the embryo developed, Bilozerska, now 42, was ready to seize her unique opportunity to become a mother. But she once again had to put her wishes aside.

Russia at the end of February 2022 launched a campaign into Ukraine. Bilozerska was immediately sent back to the front line. The embryos were frozen with about 10,000 other embryos in a clinic in Kiev called Nadiya, Ukrainian for “Hope”.

Bilozerska’s case reflects an ongoing and increasingly serious trend in Ukraine. The birth rate, the average number of children each woman gives birth to, has plummeted. This situation could have far-reaching, long-term consequences for the European country’s economy and social structure.

“It’s a disaster,” Ella Libanova, Ukraine’s leading demography expert, told CNN. “No country can exist without its people. Even before the war, Ukraine’s population density was low and unevenly distributed.”

Ms. Libanova said Ukraine’s population has decreased by about 10 million people since the war with Russia broke out in February 2022, including those killed, people traveling abroad and residents of territories annexed by Russia. The conflict devastated Ukraine’s infrastructure, eroded its economy, and drove people of childbearing age to the battlefield. These factors are creating a demographic gap that is difficult to fill.

Ukraine’s fertility rate is currently below 1, while this figure in Europe and the US is 1.4 and 1.6 respectively. That means the new generation is not enough to replace the previous generation, signaling a trend of rapid aging and shrinking of the workforce in the near future.

Dr. Valery Zukin, director of the Nadiya clinic, clearly sees the devastating impact the war is having on Ukraine’s birth rate.

“We recorded many complications, abnormalities and difficulties in keeping the fetus to term,” Mr. Zukin said, adding that genetic tests on aborted embryos showed a sharp increase in the rate of chromosomal abnormalities since the outbreak of the conflict.

Nadiya clinic obstetrician Alla Baranenko, who is in charge of Bilozerska’s case, notes many cases of early menopause in young women.

“Egg quality is poorer and quantity is also reduced, not only in my patients but also in egg donors, women who have no fertility problems,” Ms. Baranenko said. The sperm quality of Ukrainian men, especially those returning from the front lines, has also declined.

The war also changed the family structure in Ukraine. Iryna Ivanova discovered she was pregnant at the same time her husband, F-16 pilot Pavlo Ivanov, died in April 2025. When her daughter was born, she named her Yustyna, the name the two of them chose when dreaming about the future.

“When I heard my baby cry, I felt like I was revived,” Ivanova shared. “You feel the greatest happiness and the deepest pain, and gradually learn to accept it all as part of yourself and your life.”

Ukraine does not announce specific casualties in the war with Russia. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated in January that about 100,000-140,000 Ukrainians have died since the beginning of the conflict.

Due to regulations that exempt young people from going to the front line, the average age of the Ukrainian army is currently 43 years old, and most of the soldiers who died in battle were married. As a result, tens of thousands of women became widows and tens of thousands of children lost one parent. Official figures show that there are currently 59,000 children in Ukraine who do not live with their biological parents due to fighting.

The massive wave of departures has made the situation in Ukraine even more serious. About 6 million people, mostly young women and children, have registered as refugees abroad since 2022 and the majority remain in Europe. According to expert Libanova, the longer the war lasts, the less likely they are to return home because they have settled into a new life.

The lack of a young and skilled workforce raises concerns about brain drain. During the reconstruction phase, Ukraine will need large human resources to restore the economy and infrastructure. If domestic resources are insufficient, Ukraine must attract foreign workers, but that depends on prospects for stability and growth.

The consequences also spread to the social field. The rapidly aging population causes health and welfare costs to increase, while tax revenues decline. This imbalance puts additional pressure on the budget, which is already burdened by defense.

After many years of fighting, Bilozerska decided to retire from the army last year at the age of 45 to return to Kiev to take care of her disabled father. “I couldn’t continue fighting anymore. Most of the members in the unit were young people and I couldn’t keep up with them,” she said.

Commanders had long suggested that Bilozerska move to a position away from the front lines, but she always refused. Bilozerska’s embryo remained in Nadiya, waiting for her mother for three years.

“I felt it was my last chance to have a baby. I went to the clinic to receive my embryo. And Pavlus was born when I was 46 years old,” she said. “His middle name is Bohdan, which means ‘gift from God’. You pick him up, he reaches out to you, he smiles and you go crazy for him. It’s an indescribable feeling.”