Earthquake in the Gulf: The war in Iran spread to a dozen countries in 72 hours

Only 72 hours after the US and Israel launched an attack against Iran, the war has already spread to almost the entire Middle East, reached the gates of Europe and raised new fears about attacks on US soil.

• The sheer geographic scope of the war is staggering—it directly involves at least 11 countries, disrupts the global flow of oil and gas, and shakes markets around the world.
• President Trump said today that Operation Epic Fury is intended to last four to five weeks. In this period of time, the war has a significant potential to expand even further.

• The Middle East barely had time to recover. After two years of war throughout Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen, an American-brokered ceasefire brought relative peace to the region only last October.
• Now another earthquake is coming – and according to the first signs, it will be much bigger.

• Iran warned before the war that any attack on its territory would lead to a response not only against Israel, but also against American bases throughout the Gulf and in Iraq.
• In the first hours of the war, Iran launched waves of ballistic missiles and UAVs at Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar.
• Iran also attacked the Kurdish region in Iraq, which it sees as close to the US and Israel. Pro-Iranian militias attacked US bases in Iraq, and their supporters tried to break into the US Embassy compound in Baghdad.
• On the second day, Iran expanded the attacks to Saudi Arabia and Oman – the country that played a central role in mediating the nuclear talks between Tehran and the Trump administration.
• On Monday, fragments of two Iranian drones hit an Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia – the first such attack since 2019.
• Qatar – another key mediator between Tehran and Washington – announced that it had intercepted two Iranian fighter jets and condemned Iran’s “reckless and irresponsible attack”.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and other senior officials claimed that Iran is not at war with the countries of the region – but is only targeting Israel and American military bases.
• But Iranian drones and missiles hit a large number of civilian targets across the Gulf, including tourist areas in Dubai.
• The gap between Iran’s statements and its actions is pushing some regional countries to consider joining the war and acting directly against Iran, senior Arab officials said.

• Iran has also acted to stifle commercial shipping in the Gulf, closing the Strait of Hormuz and declaring that it will set fire to any ship that tries to pass through it.
• The US has sunk several Iranian vessels and claims that the oil supply remains stable, even though 20% of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz.
• The attacks have significantly reduced exports, and the shutdown of liquefied natural gas production in Qatar sent energy prices soaring on Monday.

• On Sunday night, Hezbollah entered the war – launched missiles and UAVs at Israel and opened a new front on the Lebanese border.
• Israel responded with a massive wave of airstrikes across Lebanon, including in Beirut, killing several senior Hezbollah commanders.
• Hizbollah’s decision to join the fighting was one of the main disappearances for American and Israeli intelligence. Although severely damaged in recent years, the organization remains Iran’s strongest branch.
• So far Hezbollah’s attacks have been limited and most of them have been intercepted by Israeli air defense systems – something that raises questions in Israel as to why the organization joined without using its full force.
• “Everyone in Hezbollah is a target now,” warned an Israeli security official.
• In an unusual development, the Lebanese government voted today to ban any military activity by Hezbollah on its territory. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called on the organization to surrender its weapons immediately.

• In the last 24 hours, drones hit the British Royal Air Force base in Akrotiri in Cyprus – and dragged Europe into conflict for the first time.
• The Cypriot media reported that all signs indicate that the UAVs were launched from Lebanon by Hezbollah, and link the attack directly to the organization’s entry into the war.
• Cyprus – which currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union – has postponed a planned ministerial summit. Greece announced that it was sending two frigates and two fighter jets to help defend the island.

• The three main European powers—Britain, France, and Germany—signaled that they might actively intervene in the war.
• In a joint statement on Sunday, their leaders said they would take steps “to protect our interests and those of our allies in the region, including through necessary and proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran’s ability to launch missiles and UAVs already at the source of the launch.”
• The first concrete step came from British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who announced that he would allow the US to use British bases in the region to launch strikes against Iranian missile depots and UAVs.
• A source in the cave said that these are bases in Britain, Cyprus or the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

• The Houthis in Yemen, supported by Iran, have not yet joined the war, but have signaled that they are preparing for it.

• The war is already being felt on US territory as well. The FBI and the Ministry of Homeland Security have raised the level of preparedness for combating terrorism, and a bulletin from the ministry warned of an “increased threat environment” – including fear of terrorist attacks and cyber attacks by pro-Iranian activists.