After Khamenei’s death: “Eliminating one person is not enough”

On Saturday, the USA launched one together with Israel Military strike against Iran. Among other things, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the Chief of General Staff killed. On Monday evening, the Iran expert and author Solmaz Khorsand was a guest at Martin Thür’s ZiB2. US President Donald Trump’s demand for a Regime change Khorsand believes that Iran is currently unrealistic. The social and political conditions allowed do not expect a broad protest movementshe said.

Overthrow in Iran from within? “Very difficult”

“I think so at the moment very difficult“, said Khorsand, referring to a possible coup from within. The population had one “until a few months ago Experienced massacres“, with Tens of thousands dead and thousands imprisoned. Many are in underground prisons, “where we don’t know what’s happening to them in this war.” Under these circumstances, she cannot imagine “that a protest movement will take to the streets under the current conditions.”

Khorsand described Khamenei’s death as realpolitik extremely significant. Although there is relief among parts of the population, power in Iran is not limited to one person. “Eliminating one person is not enough in Iran,” said Khorsand. Unlike other authoritarian systems, there is “very different power blocs”.

Pahlavi “one of the leading figures”

The current transition mechanism only has limited powers. “I would argue that the real power currently rather in the Revolutionary Guards lies,” said Khorsand. These have gradually united since the Iran-Iraq war “State within a state” constructed.

Despite rapprochements, the opposition remains fragmented. Bearers of hope Reza Pahlavi was “one of the leading figures,” said Khorsand, but expressed clear reservations. She sees his followers “very authoritarian, if not even fascist, traits” and don’t consider him an integrative figure.