New master plan for the electricity of the future

The starting point is clear: Because in the future we will drive cars almost exclusively electrically, heat with heat pumps and convert industry to electricity as much as possible, the demand for electricity will increase drastically.

The e-industry expects an increase from currently around 80 terawatt hours (TWh) of energy to 120 TWh in 2040.

More power plant output

In order to be able to produce this amount of electricity, the installed power plant output in Austria must grow massively: The graphic shows a jump in output from current levels 33.5 gigawatts (GW) to an impressive 57.8 gigawatts in 2040. This corresponds to almost doubling today’s total capacity.

Why this gigantic expansion is necessary is explained Barbara Schmidt, Secretary General of Austria’s Energywith a paradox: on an annual basis, almost 90 percent of electricity generation comes from renewable energies, but appearances are deceptive. In 2024, electricity was only generated 100 percent from renewables in around every fifth hour. This happens especially in spring and summer. There is a gap in supply in autumn and winter.

The graphic makes it clear where the increase should come from. Although photovoltaics is growing rapidly, experts say the real feat has to happen with other technologies. The electricity strategy places a much greater focus on the expansion of wind and hydropower.

Hydropower, the traditional backbone of Austria’s electricity supply, will still account for around 25 percent of total capacity in 2040. However, wind power is even more urgent: it often produces the most electricity precisely when the sun is low in the cold half of the year and thus helps us through the winter. However, the expansion of wind turbines is currently stalling massively. But what happens in those cold, foggy winter weeks when there is no wind, the rivers have little water and the sun doesn’t appear for days?

The system needs a safety net for this so-called “dark lull”.

In the graphic this is hidden under the term “Controllable capacities“, meaning gas power plants or biomass. Their percentage share of the overall system will fall from around 33 percent today to 20 percent in 2040. In absolute numbers, however, these power plants will have to be expanded by 1.8 gigawatts.

In the future they should be climate neutral green gases (Hydrogen, biomethane?) or biomass can be operated to cover the winter power gap.

Another piece of the puzzle in the graphic is: Batteries. They serve as short-term buffers in the network and are expected to grow from the current 1.1 gigawatts to 3.2 gigawatts by 2040.

The most important insight from the new capacity plan is summarized Studienautor Anton Burger von Compass Lexecon summarized as follows: “There are no good or bad generation technologies – the profiles of the different power plants complement each other. What is crucial is an efficient and robust mix.”

But it is also clear for the e-industry that there is no alternative to the conversion. Michael Strugl, President of Austria’s Energyreminds that Austria spends more than 10 billion euros on fossil energy imports every year. For him, the massive expansion of domestic electricity generation is not only a concern for climate protection, but also an absolute “no-brainer” in terms of economics and security policy.