The intelligence operation launched the war in Iran

Before Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s compound was hit by a series of missiles in a raid campaign conducted by the US and Israel, he was perhaps the most closely watched person in the world.

The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Israel’s Mossad spent years analyzing every move of him and his entourage as well as the Iranian officials who reported directly to him. The cooperation between the world’s two leading intelligence agencies has sparked an unprecedented and intense attack campaign on Iran.

Unprecedented intelligence cooperation between the US and Israel

According to well-informed sources, throughout the preparations for the war and the raid that killed Mr. Khamenei, US and Israeli intelligence agencies cooperated at an astonishing level.

Although they are close allies, they are usually quite cautious about sharing their special intelligence capabilities. But last year, for the first time, the US side granted the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) direct access to real-time surveillance satellite data, instead of just providing information on each specific incident as before. Israel also owns its own satellites, but coverage is limited.

“It’s unbelievable, for the first time we were able to observe right at our headquarters what the Americans were seeing at the same time,” an Israeli intelligence officer said.

Thanks to data collected by the CIA, as well as information leaked to the Mossad, the two countries’ intelligence learned that Iran’s Supreme Leader and senior officials often hold meetings in Tehran every Saturday morning, the start of a new working week in Iran.

According to senior US and Israeli officials, after the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran ended on February 17 without achieving any significant progress, US – Israeli military planners were ready to launch air strikes on Saturday morning, February 21. However, the final order to attack was not given.

US and Israeli officials said an important reason for this decision was that the weather in the area was relatively bad at that time. Another Israeli official said the delay was mainly requested by the US side. They want more time to ensure that the two countries’ militaries can coordinate as smoothly as possible when launching a joint campaign.

Meanwhile, a US government official admitted that it was true that there was a weather problem, but the Israeli side was the one concerned about this factor.

The decision to delay gave US President Donald Trump more time to choose between two parallel paths: diplomacy and force, options that he has been considering for nearly two months.

In the days that followed, US and Israeli intelligence officials were always concerned about the possibility that Mr. Khamenei would leave his residence for an underground shelter.

Faced with the large US forces gathered near Iran at that time, Tehran officials tried to persuade Mr. Khamenei to move into an underground shelter, but the Supreme Leader of Iran ultimately decided to convene the next meeting on February 28 in an above-ground building in central Tehran.

A senior US administration official said they were quite surprised that Iran’s Supreme Leader did not retreat to an underground bunker as advised by his advisers.

Decision moment

US and Israeli intelligence determined that the meeting on the morning of February 28 was the most suitable time to conduct the raid. Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter said there are two separate meetings in sight, both focusing on options to deal with the wave of protests in Iran.

According to a senior Israeli official, the opening airstrike not only targeted Leader Khamenei but also his sons and many other high-ranking Iranian officials.

Israel and the US fear that Iranian spies will know in advance that the attack is about to take place. Therefore, on the evening before the raid, the Israeli generals returned home, then used other cars to move to the headquarters, to cover the eyes of enemy intelligence.

Israeli intelligence and its American partners even sought to “send a signal that no attack was imminent, to make Mr. Khamenei and others feel safe.”

The US continued to negotiate with Iran until 36 hours before the airstrike, even planning further discussions. Before the 12-day conflict last June, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) evacuated important bases.

This time, they didn’t do that, they just suddenly acted at the decisive moment. At around 9:00 a.m. on February 28, when Mr. Khamenei and his advisers began their regular meeting, Israeli fighter jets were also ordered to fire missiles.

The attack took the entire Iranian air defense system by surprise. Mr. Khamenei’s complex was hit by 30 rockets and was completely destroyed. The Supreme Leader and a series of high-ranking Iranian officials died in Israel’s first attacks.

Argumentative

Destroying the brain has long been a core part of every combat plan. Israel has demonstrated this ability thanks to its superior intelligence capabilities. However, even if successful and shocking, the long-term political consequences of such actions remain a big question mark.

President Trump also seems to believe that targeting the enemy’s brain is an action plan that will help quickly end the war. Israeli officers described the raid on the morning of February 28 as a “valuable combat opportunity” that would help eliminate the current leadership in Iran and pave the way for successors more willing to make concessions.

But leadership assassinations remain fiercely controversial and the outcome is often uncertain.

Israel has repeatedly killed leaders of armed organizations, even wiped out an entire generation of Hamas leaders, including founder Ahmed Yassin, but this force still exists and is strong enough to attack Israel, culminating in the raid on October 7, 2023.

In 1992, Israeli attack helicopters killed Hezbollah leader Abbas Musawi, but then the organization’s leadership position was replaced by Hassan Nasrallah, a leader with much superior capabilities. Over the next three decades, Nasrallah transformed Hezbollah into the dominant force in Lebanese politics and threatened Israel with its formidable arsenal.

Killing a country’s leader also raises the risks even higher. The death of the Iranian Leader could not bring about the quick and decisive results that President Trump wanted, due to the fact that neither Tel Aviv nor Washington seemed to have calculated the next steps and who would replace Mr. Khamenei.

Besides, there is currently a lot of controversy related to the final negotiations between the US and Israel in Geneva on February 26. According to an Israeli official, it is essentially just to buy time until the attack date, making Iran believe that the US still prioritizes diplomacy.

But others affirmed that the negotiations were still substantive. If Washington sees clear progress in Geneva, Mr. Trump is ready to postpone the attack again.

Two US officials also rejected the assertion that the negotiations in Geneva were just a smokescreen. They said that although US special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were very skeptical about the possibility of reaching an agreement, they did not “act” to deceive the Iranian side.

When the morning session of February 26 ended, Kushner and Witkoff returned with the final proposal from the US, including asking Iran to stop enriching uranium for 10 years, and then only maintain enrichment capacity at a symbolic level. The US also offered to provide nuclear fuel to Iran for free to serve civilian needs.

Another US official said Trump’s team had been “very clear” about using force if Iran did not accept the deal. But the Iranian side firmly rejected this offer.

Kushner and Witkoff reported back to Mr. Trump. The President then ordered the activation of the US military machine.

“There was actually a concerted effort to promote good faith negotiations… But in the end, no results were achieved. Meanwhile, our resources were ready. So the President decided to attack,” a US official revealed.