Toppling the regime may be Mr. Trump’s real goal in Iran

The Israeli army on March 9 said it launched missiles at the Internal Security Command in the city of Isfahan, the police headquarters, other facilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militia in central Iran. These agencies are all considered pillars of the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The Israeli military said the operation was part of an effort to “further damage to the core structure and foundations of the Iranian regime”. This is the first attack announced by Israel since Mojtaba Khamenei was elected Supreme Leader of Iran on March 8.

Last week, the US Department of Defense also announced a list of military targets in Iran, in which air strikes focused on destroying Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and nuclear programs, as well as naval vehicles.

However, the goal seems to be more than just that. The US has also increased missile launches at security targets, which are used by the Iranian leadership to protect the survival of the regime.

Analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) in the US shows that at least 123 headquarters, barracks and local bases of the IRGC and Basij were targeted. Regional police forces, mainly in the capital region around Tehran and in western Iran, are also in sight.

Nicholas Carl, a CTP member, said this shows that in addition to military goals, the US campaign seems to be “clearing the way” for an uprising within Iran. “By targeting these groups, we are weakening the Iranian government’s ability to monitor and suppress its people,” Carl said.

This shows that the goal of President Donald Trump’s administration in the current campaign is not only to target Iran’s missile and nuclear programs, but also to lay the foundation for the goal of regime change, according to Carl.

Mr. Trump and top aides have recently given inconsistent messages about campaign goals, from calling for regime change to asking for more flexibility, such as allowing the Islamic Republic to still exist but with a leadership more friendly to the US.

Rob Malley, US special envoy for Iran under President Joe Biden, said a prolonged campaign could cause “the regime to collapse in such a way that it can no longer truly and effectively govern the entire country”.

“What Mr. Trump is saying right now shows the prospect of an extremely ambitious, long and risky campaign. According to Mr. Trump, it can only end when Iran surrenders, but this is very unlikely,” Malley said.

The former US official added that the US campaign may have begun to take effect, when Iran’s communications system was hacked and senior officials in the country could not meet without being detected by the US or Israel.

“The regime may still exist but be weakened and suffer heavy losses, making it more difficult for them to manage an increasingly divided and chaotic country. Or that regime is no longer able to govern,” he predicted.

The US and Israel began a campaign to attack Iran on February 28. After 10 days, the campaign was considered successful in its goal of destroying Iran’s military capabilities, with an estimated 90% reduction in the country’s ballistic missile inventory and an 83% reduction in UAVs. More than 30 Iranian naval vessels, including vehicles used as launch platforms for UAVs, were destroyed. This is a significant loss for this country’s navy.

Elliott Abrams, who served as President Trump’s special envoy on Iran in 2020, said that Washington can absolutely declare victory based on these results.

“Iran will become increasingly weaker as it runs out of resources and continues to be attacked on many key targets. Therefore, I do not think a prolonged campaign will be needed,” Abrams said.

However, this scenario means that the current Iranian regime continues to exist, opening up the prospect of a new government with a revenge mindset that will rebuild its forces and severely suppress domestic movements. According to Abrams, such an outcome could cause a wave of discontent with Mr. Trump, especially when the US has suffered human losses in combat.

In his speech announcing the campaign, Mr. Trump sent a message to Iranians, calling on them to stay at home until the campaign ends and then take the opportunity to seize power.

“For years, you have asked for America’s help. But you have never received it. No president has been willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let’s see how you will react,” he said.

At the headquarters of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) on March 5, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told reporters that Mr. Trump still kept his original promise to the Iranian people, that there would be a time for an uprising.

“No one has done more than President Trump to bring opportunities to those who want a free Iran. As he said from the beginning, don’t take to the streets to protest when bombs are falling in Tehran and other places. There will come a time when he or they themselves will realize it’s time to take advantage of that,” Mr. Hegseth said.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of President Donald Trump, does not hide this goal.

“When the Iranian regime falls, we will have a new Middle East, and we will make a lot of money. No one will dare to threaten the Strait of Hormuz anymore. President Trump is saving the world from real chaos,” Mr. Graham said.

However, Suzanne Maloney, vice president of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution and an expert on Iran, warned that the Trump administration may be overconfident about the scenario of regime change in Iran using air strikes alone.

Maloney said that no matter how long the US and Israel conduct air strikes, the Iranian government will likely still stand firm and “capable of overwhelming and dealing with any challenge from within”.

However, a prolonged and systematically conducted campaign could change that assessment, possibly even requiring ground troops on the ground. Mr. Trump has also repeatedly stated that he does not rule out the option of deploying ground troops to Iran.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on March 5 that the country is not afraid of US ground troops entering and is “ready for war”. Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani also warned that the country’s armed forces are “ready to destroy and capture thousands of US soldiers to force US officials to bring disgrace”.

“Of course, months of all-out war could collapse the government in Iran,” Maloney said. “But I don’t think it will be a stable transfer of power, but there could be a dangerous power vacuum for a while in the heart of the Middle East.”