The number of families with late payments on loans is the highest in 20 years and defaults in companies are worrying

Just when considering debt with virtual wallets, 25% have delays greater than three months. An additional element is added: with a lower level, there is also alert for the normality of payments in companies.

A group of consulting firms analyzed the latest data available to the Central Bank, which was recently updated with information until the end of January. Among the conclusions, a report from 1816 indicated as an alarm signal that the issue of default on credits had already become “a macro phenomenon”.

The Government considers that it is a “temporal” problem and that it should normalize to the extent that inflation drops again and interest rates fall, as stated in an interview this week by the Secretary of Finance Federico Furiase. Banks recognize that this is a relevant issue and it has begun to impact their balance sheets.

Credit irregularity, that is, late payments and accumulated debts can be analyzed in three different sectors: those from families with the banking system, those from families towards non-financial entities (virtual wallets, fintech or commercial chains) and those from companies.

For the first segment, the financial consulting firm 1816 calculated based on BCRA microdata that household arrears reached “new highs in more than two decades” in January when it reached 10.6% of the total.

According to his estimates, the 25 main banks in the system experienced an increase in family default “which speaks of a macro phenomenon,” they said. In other words: they assure that it is no longer a specific issue but a generalized problem.

Another consulting firm, EcoGo, made a specific report on household debt with other entities that provide credit without being banks. In this case, they detected that the irregularity in normal payments was much higher than that towards traditional financial entities and It reached 23.9% in January.

This list includes entities such as virtual wallets (Naranja 51% of the market), fintech, supermarkets, appliance chains and even automotive brands that offer their own financing.

The EcoGo report also reflects the progress of defaulters “irrecoverable“, that is, those who have delays of more than one year for the repayment of the credit: they are the 8% total of loaned balances, almost triple that of a year ago. AND 25% of the total is at least three months late.

In general, the rates of non-financial entities are much higher than banks. According to 1816, rates have dropped so far this year but still in February the real effective rate (that is, above inflation) reached 40% for personal loans in banks.

And they estimated that “probably has been around 150% in non-financial ones.” In both cases, the total financial cost (CFT) was estimated as “much higher.”

For this financial consulting firm, lowering the volatility of the system’s “short” interest rates, which have been altered since the middle of last year after the end of the Central Bank’s Lefi, could contribute to reducing the cost of financing. Although they mentioned that there was progress in this matter, they considered that “it is inevitable to ask if With another rate policy, greater stability would not be achieved“.

Among companies in general terms, the default percentages are lower and reached the end of the year 2,7%. For Analytica, part of the explanation is that most of the financing concentrates on a few large companieswhich tends to “smooth out” that overall number.

But in an in-depth analysis of the number, size and sectors of the companies, that consulting firm observed that there are segments of the activity that are going through financial difficulties.

“42% of credit is concentrated in just 0.3% of legal companies that are listed as large companies. While 99.7% of the remaining companies have 58.0% of the debt,” said Analytica. Among large companies, default is 0.9% and among SMEs, 4%.

Now, when taking into consideration the number of companies with credit irregularities, the proportion rises to 12.9%. Analyzed by category, companies linked to Construction have arrears of 6.1% of the amount, followed by Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (4.5%), and Hotels and Restaurants (4%). The industry experiences a default of 3.6%.