Concern in Europe: “The Middle East has dramatically changed the situation”

The war in Iran is also shaking up the diplomatic arena surrounding the war in Ukraine, and is causing concern in Europe that the efforts for a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow are losing momentum. European sources told the Financial Times that the process led by the United States is fading, partly because President Donald Trump is turning his attention to the war with Iran and losing interest in the talks, alongside measures that actively strengthen Russia.

According to four EU diplomats in contact with Ukraine, the fighting in the Middle East has diverted Washington’s attention from efforts to reach an agreement on the war with Russia. At the same time, according to them, the developments are even helping Russia in several ways – world oil prices have risen, some of the American sanctions have been eased, and the American stockpile of ammunition needed by Ukraine is rapidly dwindling.

A senior European official defined the state of negotiations as being in the “danger zone”. The Kremlin also admits that the talks have encountered a slowdown. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that there had indeed been a break in the talks. According to him, the United States currently has other priorities.

The last round of talks between representatives of Ukraine and Russia with American mediation took place on February 17-18 in Geneva. Another round planned for March 5 in Abu Dhabi was postponed due to the outbreak of the war in Iran, and a new date has not yet been set. Today Zelensky said that the American negotiating team is trying to schedule a new meeting for next week.

One of the European diplomats said that “the Middle East has dramatically changed the focus of political attention in the world.” According to him, for the European Union and for Ukraine this is a very problematic situation.

Along with harming political contacts, the Europeans also warn of military influence. According to them, the EU countries received a message that American arms shipments, especially air defense systems and ammunition, could be delayed because Washington is now giving priority to customers in the Middle East. This means direct competition for the same resources between the arenas.

EU Foreign Minister Kaya Callas said that this is a “real problem”, because it is the same military measures that are required both in the Middle East and in Ukraine. According to her, it is clear that American attention is now directed mainly to the Middle East.

At the same time, the war in Iran gave Moscow an unexpected economic advantage. The rise in energy prices has increased Russia’s income from oil, and the Kremlin may earn up to about 150 million dollars a day. In addition, the United States eased the pressure it exerted on countries like India not to purchase Russian oil, which led to the flow of tankers towards the Indian Ocean, and even granted an exemption for a month for the purchase of Russian oil already loaded in tankers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that this American move certainly does not help peace efforts.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has mostly avoided criticizing Trump following the war in Iran. Sources involved in informal talks between the parties estimate that this is an attempt to avoid a situation where the United States will stand more clearly on the side of Ukraine, against the background of the cooperation between Iran and Russia.

However, in talks with Ukraine, the Kremlin has hardly shown a willingness to compromise. The Russian side also has a sense of frustration with the process. One of the sources involved in the secret diplomatic channel said that the talks had lost momentum and that it was necessary to “bring new life into this format”.

European leaders are not sure that the talks will lead to a breakthrough without additional pressure on Moscow, but for them their very existence is important to maintain American involvement in the conflict. Tonight Trump said in an interview with NBC that “it is much more difficult to reach a deal with Zelensky than with Putin”, and once again proved that he is not interested in increasing the pressure on the Russian side.

To prevent the war with Iran from marginalizing Ukraine, European leaders are trying to keep it at the center of the agenda. French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Zelensky in Paris in an attempt to emphasize support for Kyiv despite international attention on the Middle East.

German Chancellor Friedrich March also visited the White House shortly after the start of the attacks in Iran. He arrived at the meeting with maps and data designed to persuade Washington to increase pressure on Moscow, and also criticized the sanctions relief the US had given Russia.

However, according to the report in the Financial Times, Trump did not show much interest in a detailed discussion of the issue. According to them, he still believes that Russia is in a position of strength while Ukraine is weaker, and it does not appear that the United States intends to increase the pressure on Putin. Last week, American officials even conveyed a message to their European allies that no further sanctions are planned on the Russian oil industry.

A White House official said that Trump still hopes that the talks will lead to an end to the war and that American mediators have made significant progress in recent months. However, behind the scenes there are those who estimate that the Russian side is in no hurry to return to the negotiating table. One of the sources involved in the talks said that it seems that the Russians have no interest in further talks soon because, according to them, there is currently nothing to discuss.

European attempts to gain a more central role in the process were also met with refusal by Moscow. Last month, French officials unusually arrived in Moscow for a discussion with Putin’s advisers. The French envoys tried to persuade Russia to agree that Kiev’s European allies should also sit at the negotiating table. According to a senior European diplomat, the answer they received was completely negative.

The Kremlin presents a different picture. Peskov claimed that the Europeans do not really want to advance the peace process and that they are investing their efforts in persuading Ukraine to continue the war. According to him, this is a mistake in terms of the future of Europe.

Peskov added that Russia is confident that it is on the trend of progress on the battlefield. According to him, the Russian forces are advancing and getting closer to achieving their goals, but Moscow is still open to a diplomatic settlement. In practice, the rate of progress of the Russian army is minimal, and the rate of its losses is enormous. A senior Ukrainian official said that Russia is not serious about ending the war because it continues to make demands that Kiev cannot accept.