Expert on Cuban Missile Crisis: “Donald Trump doesn’t know what he wants”

DELIVERY MAN: US President Donald Trump says that Cuba and its regime are on the verge of collapse. What is his goal?

Christopher Sabatini: We don’t know that. I think Trump doesn’t know what he wants either. Sometimes he talks about the “liberation of Cuba,” sometimes about a “friendly takeover,” sometimes about regime change or economic reforms. The goals are constantly changing – and that’s why he probably hasn’t really thought through the consequences, which is a problem. Partly that’s because he didn’t do that with Venezuela either. For him, the relative “success” there seems – in large quotation marks – to be a possible model for Cuba.

Would a maneuver like the one in Venezuela also work in Cuba? So just replace the head of a government and leave the rest as is?

No. Cuba is not Venezuela. The regime is much more consolidated. There is no single replaceable person, no more pragmatic representative than Delcy Rodríguez (Successor to Nicolás Maduro, note). Even though many things are not going well in Cuba and the population is dissatisfied, the military and government are heavily indoctrinated and disciplined and society is oppressed. In contrast to Venezuela, it is actually a communist country with a state-run economy.

Are US military strikes against Cuba an option?

With Trump it is sometimes the case that he takes a path without knowing where it will lead. If he brings military options into play, it becomes almost inevitable that he will use them – as with Venezuela or Iran. In Cuba the probability is lower. It wouldn’t work either. Given the economic situation, it would trigger a refugee crisis – something Trump certainly doesn’t want before the midterm elections.

Foreign Minister Marco Rubio, who has Cuban roots, plays a central role in the issue. What is his attitude?

It has changed. Hardliners like him used to think: If we bring down Venezuela, Cuba will be next because we’ll cut off the oil supply. Meanwhile they realize that they have taken on more than they intended. The Cuban government is more resilient than expected. The humanitarian crisis already existed and has continued to worsen.

And suddenly Rubio seems a little more moderate – he’s talking about economic liberalization, which sounds surprisingly like former President Barack Obama in 2014. This is not unlike the case of Venezuela, when everyone – including the opposition – thought that the military buildup off the coast would lead to the formation of a government under María Corina Machado and Edmundo González. And then things turned out differently.

So economic opening without real regime change seems a more likely scenario?

There is a certain logic in this that was already clear in 2014 when Obama initiated his normalization policy. However, there are two problems: First, the Cuban government is very resistant to economic opening because its entire control depends on control over the economy and society. Secondly, given the humanitarian crisis, this will not be enough.

What is known about the ongoing talks between Washington and Havana?

We hear that Raúl Castro’s grandson is being spoken to. This is notable for two reasons. First, it shows that the Cuban regime – despite claiming to be a revolution – has become a dynasty. Second, it shows how much Marco Rubio has changed. According to the Helms-Burton Act, a US embargo cannot be lifted as long as a Castro is in power. And now suddenly Rubio is talking to Castro’s grandson! I think this is pragmatic, an acknowledgment of the difficulties of regime change at this moment. But nobody would have thought that until recently – especially not Rubio himself.

Does Cuba still have allies?

No and that’s a problem. Countries like China, Russia, Iran and North Korea criticize but will do nothing. Other actors who could play a positive role are holding back because they see it as a US-Cuba conflict.

For example, Mexico, which is no longer sending oil under US pressure.

President Claudia Sheinbaum has many problems with Trump. Cuba is not one of them. This year the North American Free Trade Agreement will be renegotiated. She won’t jeopardize her relationship with Trump over Cuba.

What expectations does the Cuban diaspora in the USA have of Trump – and what influence does it have?

The Cuban diaspora is not homogeneous. Older generations are strongly anti-Castro and politically influential in the Republican Party. The younger people are more pragmatic. For traditional Cuban-American hardliners, it will be a real test of loyalty: Will they follow Rubio and Trump and a policy that falls far short of what they have always stood for – namely, immediate regime change? You don’t really have any other option.

But one thing is certain: If their actions cause unintended consequences, such as a refugee crisis, it will harm them politically – not just in Florida, but across the country.