Due to economic uncertainty, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate in the US.

Thus, the Federal Reserve left the rate in the range between 3.5 and 3.75%.

The Fed had its second meeting of 2026 to decide on the interest rate, in a context marked by the new situation derived from the war against Iran and its impact on crude oil prices, inflation and economic growth expectations.

“Available indicators suggest that economic activity has expanded at a solid pace. Employment growth has remained low and the unemployment rate has changed little in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated,” the Fed said in a statement announcing its decision.

And he added that “the Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at a rate of 2 percent in the long term.”

Then he warned: “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains high. The implications of events in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain. “The Committee pays attention to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”

“In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range of the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully evaluate incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is firmly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent target,” he added about the future.

In addition, he warned that “the Committee would be prepared to adjust the monetary policy stance as appropriate if risks arise that may hinder the achievement of your objectives. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and inflation expectations, as well as financial and international developments.

Experts had already warned that the complicated scenario was not helping to lower rates. “The (Iran) war represents a ‘stagflationary’ shock to the US economy in the short term,” said Michael Pearce, chief economist at Oxford Economics, who recalled that before the start of the joint US-Israeli war against Iran on February 28, the labor market was stabilized and inflation was on a downward trend.

Analysts, in general, have not changed their expectations for interest rate cuts for this year for the moment and continue to expect around two cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, despite the fact that Trump continues to insist that a greater stimulus is necessary with the drop in the price of money.

The most recent macroeconomic data, which do not yet take into account the impact of a barrel of oil at risk of consolidating above 100, They do not paint a very promising picture for the American economy.

In February United States lost 92,000 jobs, the second worst figure in more than a year, while growth for the last quarter of 2025 was revised sharply downwards up to 0.7% in annualized rate, while inflation remained unchanged at 2.4% in February.

This will be the penultimate meeting for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before his departure in May, although the end of his term could be delayed if Trump’s nominee to replace him, Kevin Warsh, does not obtain Senate confirmation quickly enough.

Powell has endured more than a year of public criticism and constant pressure from Trump to accelerate rate cuts to make credit cheaper and revive the economy. He always remained firm, arguing that decisions are made based on the most relevant indicators and not on political pressures.

The Fed has kept rates unchanged so far this year after three consecutive 25 basis point cuts at the end of 2025 and kept interest rates between 3.5 and 3.75%.

However, some analysts, such as Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, note that the Fed may revise medium-term inflation forecasts upwards, with only a marginal impact due to energy prices, something that “makes it entirely plausible that there will not be a single rate cut at all this year.”