The IMF affirms that Argentina is coping “relatively well” with the effects of the war, but warns about the impact of global financial conditions

At a press conference in Washington, the organization’s Director of Communications, Julie Kozack, spoke for several minutes about the effects of the US and Israeli war against Iran, which has raised the international price of oil and caused global economic uncertainty, and said the real impact will depend of the extension of the conflict and the damage to energy infrastructure, while the Fund monitors how it affects the most vulnerable countries.

In the Argentine case, Kozack referred to the second program review which is in progress. The Fund’s technical team is currently preparing with Economics officials the staff level agreement, the document with the details of compliance with this stage, to elevate it to the executive board in the coming weeks of the organism to give the final green light.

“Progress continues on some key fronts. Collaboration between IMF staff and authorities is very close and appropriate, and talks are moving forward,” Kozack said, noting that “over the past two weeks, “The global environment has become more challenging with the conflict in the Middle East.”

However, the official pointed out that Argentina has faced the situation in the Middle East “relatively well so far, especially considering it is now a net energy exporter.” And he added that in 2022, during the last major energy price shock due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, “Argentina was a net importer of energy, and now Argentina is a net exporter, with 8 billion dollars of oil and gas last year,” he highlighted.

“So This is a very important difference.”and added that “future improvements or advances are expected for Argentina to become a net energy exporter in the medium term. So we see the beginning of a trend for Argentina, which is obviously providing a significant mitigating factor for the Argentine economy.”

However, the official noted that ““The situation is changing, uncertain.” and warned that there are “tighter global financial conditions”which can make the environment “more difficult for all emerging economies and even for some advanced economies.”

Analysts believe that Argentina could take advantage of this situation, with the opportunity to boost energy exports, in the context of an international rise in oil. But if crude oil remains at high levels, the prices of products and services could push up inflation, a scenario that neither the Government nor the Fund want.

Kozack also referred to structural reforms: “Reforms are advancing on multiple fronts in Argentina to consolidate the early advances in stabilization that we have seen” and referred particularly to the fact that Congress approved the labor law weeks ago.

In another important aspect that is debated in the second review of the program, Kozack pointed out that in Argentina they are carrying out “efforts to rebuild international reserves.”

And he noted that “The Central Bank has purchased around $3.5 billion in reserves since the beginning of the year, which is equivalent to about 70 million dollars a day.” And he added that “the Treasury in Argentina now regularly issues dollar bonds in local markets, and the appetite for these instruments in Argentina has been strong.”

The accumulation of reserves is a constant concern of the Fund. The Central Bank had committed to having net reserves of $2.4 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, but that goal was not achieved because, among other things, it sought to contain the exchange rate in the weeks prior to the legislative elections in October. Thus, it is possible that this breach oblige the Fund to grant a new waiver (sorry) over the reserves target, as happened during the first review of the agreement.

But in 2026 the Government has gone out to buy foreign currency and Kozack recognized the effort, highlighting that it had already bought 3.5 billion.

Regarding the discussions on the second review of the program, he said that “they continue” and highlighted that “the main thing here is that we are committed. The conversations are advancing and the reforms seek to consolidate the strong stabilization advances.”