Memory chip shortage ‘will last until 2030’

“The shortage of memory chips stems from the fact that semiconductor wafer production capacity cannot keep up. Ensuring additional supply requires at least four to five years,” Tae-won told Korea Times on the sidelines of the Nvidia GTC 2026 event, taking place March 16-19 in San Jose, California. “We expect industry-wide supply shortages to persist at over 20% through 2030.”

Mr. Tae-won warned that the market’s excessive focus on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) – a type of memory chip used in AI systems and large data centers – could lead to a scarcity of conventional DRAM, directly affecting the smartphone and personal computer sectors, causing them to increase in price. A representative of SK Hynix said he would “effort to stabilize prices” through new measures in the near future, but did not mention details.

SK Hynix currently holds 57% of the global HBM market share and 32% of the global DRAM market share. The three largest memory chip manufacturers in the world, including SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron, have recently shifted their focus to HBM production to serve the AI ​​data center fever and have higher profits, causing DRAM output for consumer electronics devices to decline seriously.

SK Hynix is ​​encouraged to increase production through opening factories outside Korea. However, Mr. Tae-won emphasized that the group continues to focus on domestic production facilities. “Building a factory outside Korea will take a long time, regardless of the location,” he said. “South Korea has the infrastructure in place, which allows for a much faster response.”

The company plans to start construction on a $13 billion HBM packaging and testing plant at the Cheongju complex in South Korea next month, expected to be completed by the end of 2027.

Other leading memory chip companies are also aiming to produce HBM chips, such as Micron, which plans to build a $9.6 billion HBM factory in Hiroshima (Japan), starting production in 2028.

According to market analysis firm Gartner’s assessment last month, global personal computer output will decrease by 10.4% and smartphones by 8.4% in 2026 due to the sharp increase in DRAM and SSD prices of 130% at the end of this year. Computer life cycles could be extended by 15% for business users and 20% for consumers due to limited upgrades, with the low-cost laptop market being the hardest hit.