The war in the Middle East “threatens food security” and hits global economic growth, warns the WTO

In that scenario, gross global product growth would be 2.5%, down from the 2.8% still forecast, while merchandise trade would grow just 1.4%, down from the 1.9% that would still be possible if hostilities stopped soon.

However, for countries dependent on energy imports, the war could mean 1% less annual growth, double that of the rest of the countries.

“Sustained increases in energy prices could increase risks for global trade, with potential impacts on food security and cost pressures for consumers and businesses,” said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, presenting the new forecasts for global trade.

The organization confirmed that World merchandise trade grew by a notable 4.6% last yeara result of the explosion of trade in products related to artificial intelligence and the anticipation of imports to avoid the sharp increase in tariffs announced by the United States in April 2025.

Most of these increases were first voided because their application was postponed until August, a period during which Washington reached numerous bilateral agreements with most of its partners.

More recently, these tariff increases were annulled by a ruling by the US Justice, reasons that together led to the overall impact of the tariff war being less than expected.

Therefore, the 1.9% of trade growth expected for this year (without considering the effects of a prolonged war) is considered part of a “normalization” of the situation.

In terms of commercial services, the WTO foresees a progression this year of 4.8%, compared to 5.3% last year.

“The outlook reflects the resilience of global trade, driven by trade in high-tech products and digitally delivered services,” Okongo-Iweala said.

He added to these strength factors the ability of the supply chain to adapt to circumstances and the fact that the dramatic tariff increases decreed by President Donald Trump did not give rise to reciprocal tariff retaliation.

By sector, the one that attracts the most attention is technology, with a 21.9% increase in the value of trade in products related to AI in 2025, which stood at 4.18 trillion dollars, compared to 3.43 trillion the previous year.

Those products alone accounted for 42% of all total global trade growth, despite accounting for one-sixth of it, which was partly due to chips, semiconductors and data transmission equipment being left out of the upward movement in tariffs.

At the same time, the head of the WTO warned that the conflict in the Middle East “threatens global food security, as transportation disruptions and rising energy costs They reduce the supply and raise the price of fertilizers” .

“A prolonged supply disruption could ripple through food systems, leading farmers to reduce fertilizer use and grow fewer input-intensive crops,” added Ngozi Okonjo Iweala.

He also insisted that it is “essential to keep global food trade channels open and predictable, allowing food supplies to reach where they are most needed.”