Is Russian oil heading to Cuba, testing the US blockade?

The final destination of the tanker is still unknown.

But if Russia tries to ship oil to Cuba, as some analysts suspect, this could represent a crucial lifesaver for the Cuban government, and a new possible confrontation between two superpowers for control of the small island.

Cuba has not received a significant shipment of fuel since Jan. 9, shortly after the United States captured Venezuela’s president and took control of its oil exports, which were once Cuba’s main source of energy.

This is causing a serious crisis in Cuba.

The Trump administration has threatened other nations not to send fuel, hoping to suffocate the Cuban government into submission.

The tanker, called Anatoly Kolodkin and owned by the Russian government, transports approximately 730,000 barrels of crude oil, with which, according to analysts, Cuba could supply itself with energy for several weeks.

The ship left the English Channel for the North Atlantic this week and could arrive in the Caribbean as soon as Monday, according to shipping data analyzed by Kpler, a maritime data company.

According to Kpler data, the Anatoly Kolodkin set sail from Primorsk, Russia, in the Baltic Sea on March 9, publicly announcing its destination as “Atlantis, USA,” a possible ruse.

In 2024, the US government imposed sanctions on the tanker and its owner, the Russian state shipping company Sovcomflot, making it very improbable to dock in the United States. Kpler reported, citing a sector source, that its real destination is Matanzas, Cuba.

According to the British Navy, the tanker transited the English Channel escorted by a Russian navy ship, but its naval escort turned around once the tanker entered the Atlantic.

El Anatoly Kolodkin It wouldn’t be the first ship tanker trying to transport Russian fuel to Cuba in recent weeks.

The Sea Horse, a tanker loaded with nearly 200,000 barrels of diesel believed to have come from Russia, was headed to Cuba when it stopped abruptly in the mid-Atlantic last month, according to ship tracking data and a person familiar with the tanker’s operations who was not authorized to speak publicly.

According to the source, the Sea Horse company, owned by a Chinese company, suspended its shipment because its owners they feared reprisals of the US government if they delivered fuel to Cuba.

This decision, which had not been previously announced, came while the president Donald Trump He continued with his threats against the island and those who supplied it with oil.

Analysts were stumped when the tanker spent the next three weeks adrift in the Atlantic.

On Tuesday, the Sea Horse headed to another destination in the Caribbean and is now looking for a new buyer for its shipment, according to the source.

Cuba, Russia and the owner of Anatoly Kolodkin did not respond to requests for comment.

After ten weeks of an effective US oil blockade, Cuba’s energy crisis is worsening, with skyrocketing gas prices, almost daily blackouts and an imminent humanitarian catastrophe.

Health care, nutrition, education and sanitation are rapidly deteriorating.

Additionally, Cuban authorities have warned that the country’s electrical grid is on the verge of collapse. collapse.

The Trump administration is trying to strangle Cuba’s communist government into meeting its demands, including the president’s resignation. Miguel Diaz-Canel.

The White House has reinforced the blockade with threats of tariffs and, in one case, with the deployment of US military:

On February 12, a US Coast Guard vessel escorted a tanker loaded with Colombian oil to the Dominican Republic, after it had previously been en route to Cuba.

Two U.S. Coast Guard cutters are currently patrolling the waters near Cuba, according to a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.

“The Coast Guard and our federal partners maintain a continued presence in the Straits of Florida and the Caribbean,” the Coast Guard stated.

Part of the US military fleet that was stationed in the Caribbean Sea before the US attack on Venezuela subsequently left for the Middle East within the framework of the war in Iran.

On Thursday, the general Francis L. Donovanhead of US forces in Latin America, declared before Congress that the US military was not preparing no plan to overthrow the Cuban government or occupy the country.

However, Trump has been escalating his threats.

On Monday, he stated that Cuba is so weakened that he believes he will have “the honor of taking Cuba” and that “he could do with it whatever he wanted.”

Díaz-Canel responded that the US government wants to “take over the country, its resources, its properties and even the economy that they intend to suffocate to force us to surrender.”

He added: “Faced with the worst possible scenario, Cuba is guided by a certainty: any external aggressor will face a unbreakable resistance”.

The morning after Trump’s remarks, Dmitry Peskova Kremlin spokesman, told reporters that Russia was in close contact with Cuba over its energy crisis and was “ready to provide all possible help.”

He added: “Cuba is a sovereign and independent state that faces serious economic difficulties due to the suffocating embargo imposed on the country.”

He did not mention the United States or Trump.

The tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, named after Russia’s former representative on maritime law to the United Nations, could change the course of the Cuban energy crisis.

Its 730,000 barrels of crude oil can produce diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, in addition to helping feed the electrical grid, according to Jorge Piñón, a former oil executive who studies Cuba’s energy at the University of Texas.

But if it reaches Cuba, the crude oil would first have to be refined.

Cuban refineries are very inefficient, Piñón said, meaning it would likely take several weeks and oil would be wasted.

Cuba needs 100,000 barrels of oil a day to keep the country running, he said.

Currently, the country survives on its reserves, which are rapidly depleting — and may already be empty — and the approximately 40,000 barrels of oil it produces domestically each day, he added.

Russian oil would be vital, Piñón said, but only a temporary solution, giving Cuba “a respite of no more than 30 days.”