Crisis in the Middle East adds “relevant external pressures” to the country: BdeM

Cancún, QR., Global risks have increased due to the crisis in the Middle East, which has added “relevant external pressures” to the Mexican economy, warned Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, governor of the Bank of Mexico (BdeM).

Global risks have increased due to the crisis and this has caused pressure on energy prices, disruptions in supply chains and greater financial volatility, he warned.

When participating in the inauguration of the 89th Banking Convention, the official pointed out that the international environment continues to be marked by uncertainty and adjustments in the economic policies of Mexico’s main trading partner, which has influenced the recent performance of the national economy.

He indicated that during 2025, economic activity registered moderate growth, with a rebound towards the end of the year, while the beginning of 2026 remains conditioned by this environment of uncertainty.

However, he anticipated that the country could observe greater dynamism compared to the previous year.

Rodríguez Ceja explained that the risks associated with the geopolitical environment have intensified, particularly due to the conflict in the Middle East, which adds relevant external pressures.

Favorable factors

At the same time, he pointed out, there are factors that could boost economic activity, such as greater growth in the United States or the eventual reduction of trade uncertainty.

He highlighted that since July 2025 and until the first half of February 2026, inflation has remained within the variability range around the 3 percent objective, which reflects a relatively stable evolution in both its underlying and non-core components.

He detailed that within core inflation, services have shown a downward trajectory, although more gradual than expected, while merchandise registered upward pressures during 2025 and a rebound in January 2026, associated with tax adjustments, with limited and transitory effects.

In this context, the central bank expects general and underlying inflation to converge to the 3 percent target by the second quarter of 2027.

Regarding the financial system, the governor pointed out that internal financing to the private sector has continued its recovery after the impact of the pandemic, driven mainly by credit granted by commercial banks, particularly to companies and consumers.

He stated that this expansion has occurred in an orderly manner and with low levels of delinquencies, which has allowed household consumption and productive activity to be sustained.

Regarding payment systems, he highlighted that the use of electronic transfers maintains a growing trend. During 2025, more than 7.3 billion operations were carried out through SPEI, for an amount close to 600 billion pesos, equivalent to 16.8 times the gross domestic product.

However, he acknowledged that delays persist in the adoption of digital payments among some sectors of the population, which is why the BdeM is promoting regulatory changes to simplify and make electronic transfers from mobile devices more accessible.

Finally, he maintained that despite the complex external environment, Mexico has a solid financial system with foundations of stability that allow it to face risks and support economic growth.