3 scenarios for opening the Strait of Hormuz, and whether Iran played the strong card

This rapid transition reveals the depth of the impasse in which Washington is. American efforts to form an international coalition to break the blockade fail, and in the absence of enough vessels for independent action, the administration is forced to resort to a set of conflicting solutions. These are the three options for continuing the struggle.

1Temporary removal of sanctions

The first option, which Trump chose to use on the night between Friday and Saturday, is a temporary lifting of the sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian oil that are already in the sea, most of them on their way to China. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant emphasized that the goal is “to use the Iranian barrels against Tehran to reduce the price while we continue with the operation.” According to him, “Iran will find it difficult to obtain any income from this, and the US will continue to apply maximum pressure.”

On the other hand, Ella Rosenberg, a senior adviser for the prevention of terrorist financing, an expert on Iran at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs and a member of the Deborah Forum, doubts the effectiveness of the move. According to her, the Iranian oil that passes through the “Shadow Fleet” will flow capital to Tehran: “The money eventually reaches the Iranian oil company, but through indirect routes. One way or another, there will be flows back to Iran. I don’t know how the American officials claim otherwise, because the very fact that they are issuing a license for this issue shows it. This is part of the energy war, they don’t want energy prices to skyrocket.”

Prof. Yehoshua Krasna, formerly a senior member of the intelligence community and currently director of the Forum for Regional Cooperation at the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, also believes that the move creates an image problem. “The message here is bad,” explains Krsna. “What is Trump actually saying? ‘I started a war against a country, and because of market fluctuations I am allowing it to sell oil at a higher price.’ The reactions in the US show that what is really important is the price of fuel and not the victory. They even eased the sanctions on Russian oil for 30 days. Such a move hurts the US effort.” Meanwhile, the impact of the moves on the market seems limited. Although Brent dropped from $119 to $105 on Thursday, since the announcement of the lifting of sanctions the price has started to climb again.

2A threat to the energy infrastructure

In any case, it seems that this is probably a band-aid for the essential problem – the blocking of oil from the Gulf countries in the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran continues to export oil. To force Iran to back down, Trump issued a sharp threat on Sunday. “If Iran does not fully and without threat open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the US will attack and destroy its power plants – the largest of them first!”, he declared. In response, Iran issued threats against strategic energy facilities in the Gulf.

According to Prof. Krasna, the realization of the American threat will have devastating consequences for the Islamic Republic. “Despite the previous attacks, the citizens in Iran are still leading their lives. But the lack of electricity in large parts of the country will disrupt the water systems and deteriorate the entire country. It is difficult to know whether this will be a show of force focused on one central power plant or a widespread structural damage.” When asked why this particular target was chosen, Krasna stated that “there are not many other things that can be threatened. Damage to the electricity infrastructure is a long-term strategic damage.”

The next stage in the conflict is the Iranian reaction, which is directed at the allies of the US in the Gulf and not directly against Washington. Iran has already proven that it is capable of carrying out its threats and escalating the attacks on energy facilities in the region. Now it remains to be seen who will blink first, or whether widespread damage to critical infrastructure is expected, which will cause energy prices to jump.

3Take over the island beyond

The third option being considered is a military operation to occupy or paralyze Kharag Island in the Persian Gulf – Iran’s main oil terminal. This is the opposite of the removal of sanctions: instead of flooding the market with oil to lower prices, here the goal is economic strangulation, even at the cost of another jump in prices. For this purpose, amphibious assault ships carrying thousands of marines are already making their way to the area.

Prof. Krsna marks a dilemma here. “On the one hand, the seizure of Kharag is a powerful bargaining chip – a message to the Iranians that if they want to export oil, they must release Hormuz,” he explains, but qualifies: “Similar to the Venezuelan model, this is a long-term move.” On the other hand, the risk to the Americans is enormous: “This is a dangerous ‘boots on the ground’ bet. It is possible that the Iranians will refrain from firing in order not to destroy their own infrastructure, but a mass injury to American soldiers is an unknown variable that could change the rules of the game.”

​In the US political arena, the price of oil plays a dual role. Rotem Org-Klisky, an expert on American politics and director of the LIBRAEL association, explains that despite some dissatisfaction with the war, the Republican majority supports it – among other things due to considerations of defense spending and energy prices. “Sociologically, Trump’s voters are more influenced by oil prices,” says Org-Klisky, “but Trump himself cares less because he is not running for election afresh Those who risk it are his close people, such as Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio.”

According to him, the upcoming mid-term elections are not a burden on the president either: “The Senate is safe enough for him, and the House of Representatives has less influence on him.” The release from political pressures allows Trump to focus on a broader goal. “The consideration of heritage is important to him. He aspires to be remembered as the one who overthrew the Iranian ‘Evil Empire’.” In addition, according to Org-Klisky, “the US has not faced a state enemy since Iraq, and in a naval campaign the period of time is even longer.” If a war breaks out against China in 2027 or 2028, it is critical that the forces be more experienced and the US industrial system be upgraded accordingly.”

The last card
What will Iran do next?

Closing the Strait of Hormuz has so far been a weapon of deterrence for Iran – the threat of closing it has sometimes been worth more to it than the realization itself. A question that will hang over any future agreement is whether the Ayatollah regime will have a card left to show if it finds itself in conflict again. The answer, according to experts, is yes, but the threat effect has weakened.

The reason is simple: the world has proven that it can handle the actual closing of the strait, but barely. The alternatives to Hormuz remain few, so the threat remains. “Through the Red Sea, only about 5 million barrels can be taken out a day, out of about 20 million that pass through the Hormuz,” explains Prof. Krasna. “Another 2 million barrels pass through Fujairah and Oman, but they too are exposed to a direct Iranian threat. Long-term solutions such as new oil pipelines will take over a decade to build, and the purchase of oil from producers outside the Gulf is at a dead end – both due to the lack of quantities and due to significantly higher production costs.”