Trump’s ultimatum and Iran’s new challenge, endless war for Hormuz

L’ultimate

With a gallon of gas costing almost $4, Hormuz becomes a central issue in Operation Epic Fury launched by Trump on February 28th. “If Iran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz without threat within 48 hours, the U.S they will strike and destroy its energy plants starting from the largest”, wrote the American president on Truth. The ultimatum effectively expires on the Italian night between Monday 23 March and Tuesday 24. “You will soon find out what will happen with the ultimatum on power plants: the result will be very positive. There will be total destruction of Iran and it will work great”, added the number 1 of the White House speaking with the Israeli broadcaster Channel 13.

The reaction

The first reaction came from the Pasdaran: if the Americans hit the energy and fuel supply infrastructures of the Islamic Republic, “all energy infrastructures belonging to the United States in the region will be attacked”. Hence, the further ‘relaunch’. “Should US threats regarding Iranian power plants materialize, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not be reopened until our destroyed power plants are rebuilt,” military operational commander Khatam Al-Anbiya said in a statement carried by Iranian state television.

The conditions in Washington and Tehran

The distances between Washington and Tehran are enormous and are formalized in black and white. To end the war, Trump calls for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, limits to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and an end to support for Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. The answer? A categorical ‘no’, given that Iran has lined up not 3 but 6 conditions: from the guarantee that the war will not happen again to the closure of US military bases in the region, up to a new legal regime for the Strait of Hormuz. Added to this trio are other stakes: the payment of compensation to Iran, the halt to the war on all regional fronts and the extradition of anti-Iranian media workers.

In this context, it seems complicated to hypothesize a short-term epilogue to the conflict. The United States continues to transfer men – particularly more than 2,000 Marines – and ships to the region. White House officials have told their Israeli counterparts that a possible operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could last several weeks, as revealed by the Israeli broadcaster Channel 12. Everything or almost everything would depend on Trump’s ultimatum: if Tehran’s no were to remain unchanged, the war will have to be extended to give time to the US operation and therefore, the Americans again said, a change of strategy will be necessary.