Eitan Gilboa: The Straits of Hormuz are Trump’s obstacle to ending the war

According to him, “Trump’s main problem right now is the Strait of Hormuz. In my estimation, if it weren’t for this issue, he would have already ended the war last week.” Gilboa explained that the fight over the strategic shipping lane has become, from the point of view of both sides, a test of decision. “Iran says that as long as it controls Egypt and does not allow the tankers to pass, it holds a significant card. On the other hand, Trump says that he is the one who will decide, and he even gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum that should expire tonight. The Iranians, for their part, threatened to blackmail Israel and the Gulf states. This is a very serious exchange of threats,” he said.

Gilboa emphasized that as long as the crisis in the Straits of Hormuz is not resolved, Trump will have difficulty ending the campaign and declaring an achievement. “If Trump does nothing, the question will be asked what credibility his threats have. If he does act, an Iranian response is expected, and then the result could be problematic,” he said. According to him, the very ultimatum shows that the United States does not have a simple solution that will guarantee the free passage of ships in the Strait. “There are about 3,000 ships and tankers that need to pass through there and are afraid to do so. As long as Trump does not resolve this issue, he cannot end the war, and as long as Iran actually controls the Strait of Hormuz, he cannot declare victory either.”

“Trump probably thought it was a much shorter war”

Later, Gilboa criticized the conduct of the American administration, and claimed that Washington was not properly prepared for the possibility of a conflict around the strait. “The Americans underestimated this issue. It seems they didn’t prepare for it properly, and Trump probably thought it was a much shorter war,” he said. He added that Trump’s statements do not always convey a consistent and clear line. “Trump says contradictory things to confuse the Iranians, but I fear that sometimes he also confuses himself. In such a situation, there is no clear strategic policy.”

Gilboa also referred to the internal pressures exerted on Trump within the United States, and said that in the American public there is disagreement about the very war itself. “A large majority of the public sees this war as a war of choice. They believe that Iran should be prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons, but also think that it should end as quickly as possible,” he said. According to him, one of the most worrying aspects for him is the attempt to attribute the American involvement to Israeli pressure. “In the United States, there are already those who call this conflict ‘Netanyahu’s war.’ Trump’s right-wing separatist wing claims that he promised to end wars, not start new ones, and that Netanyahu dragged him in. For Trump, this is one of the most offensive accusations. The bigger problem is that if the war fails, they will blame Netanyahu and us.”

As for the strained relationship between Washington and Europe, Gilboa said that Trump tried to form an international coalition to help open the Straits of Hormuz, but was met with reservations. “This coalition says it would be happy to help open Egypt after the war, but not necessarily now,” he said. According to him, the tensions between the United States and Europe and NATO add to the difficulty. “There is a very big problem between the United States and Europe and NATO, and Trump attacks them fiercely.”