Putin abandons Iran: Russia’s cynical profit from the war is exposed

This is what happened with Armenia, this is what happened with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, and this is what is happening now with the attacks on Iran. Although the partnership between the countries has tightened dramatically since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Iran supplied Russia with suicide drones of the Shahed type and helped it establish a “shadow fleet” to circumvent sanctions, Russia today lacks the ability, or desire, to provide Tehran with advanced defense systems such as the S-400, which it needs for itself.

However, Russian passivity is paying off handsomely, as the war in the Middle East cynically serves the interests of the Kremlin. First, the tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are driving up global energy prices, injecting critical economic oxygen into the depleted Russian budget. The pressure on the markets is so great that it recently forced the US Treasury Department to temporarily suspend sanctions on the sale of Russian oil to calm rising prices. The calculation is simple: every $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil flows into Russia about $95 million every day.

Second, the campaign in the Middle East draws precious American military resources, such as interceptors and guided munitions, precisely at the expense of the aid intended for Kiev. At the end of the day, while Putin exposes Russia’s weakness as a global power that is unable to protect its partners, he at the same time demonstrates an impressive skill in deriving an economic and tactical coupon from the global chaos.