Wall Street declines led by software stocks; Oil prices continue to climb

15:42

The basket fund VAT The software shares fall by over 3% and complete a drop of over 20% since the beginning of the year, among which stocks stand out negatively monday , Palo Alto Networks andCrowd Strike Holdings .

Oil prices are now climbing as the basket fund on oil prices USE Jumping 4% and 40% in just the last month, Brent crude rose above $103 a barrel, and US crude jumped above $92. also XLE the ETF on the energy shares climbs by about 2.5%, XLK the ETF on technology shares sheds about 1%.

15:30

After a sharp rally the previous day stemming from hopes for progress against Iran, trading on Wall Street opened a few minutes ago with declines.

The Nasdaq is down 0.5%, the Dow Jones is down 0.4% and the S&P 500 is down 0.5%.

The indices jumped by more than 1% yesterday after the US president stated that “very good and productive talks” were held on the way to a comprehensive solution to the conflict in the Middle East. However, Iranian media denied any direct talks between the parties, which added to the uncertainty.

During trading, the Dow even jumped more than 1,100 points at the daily high, when a temporary drop in oil prices also supported the increases. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, secret talks did take place through regional mediators, but Arab officials expressed doubt about the prospect of a quick agreement, since the gaps between the parties are still large.

At the same time, the lack of clarity continued as Israel and Iran continued to exchange attacks even after the declarations, which emphasizes that the road to settlement is still long. Oil prices even rose again: Brent oil rose above $103 per barrel, and American oil jumped above $92.

According to the strategist Scott Chronert, despite the optimism, the risks are still significant, especially around the direction of oil prices and their effect on the economy.

Bottom line: the market oscillates between hope for diplomacy and the reality of escalation – therefore volatility remains high and the story is still far from being decided.

15:00

The sentiment in the world’s markets worsens again, while trading continues to be very volatile. The DAX index is now down by about 0.7%, the FTSE has weakened by about 0.3% and the KAC loses its value by about 0.5%. At the same time, futures on Wall Street are down by up to 0.5%.

The declines come after a little while ago, the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index in the Eurozone for the month of March was published. The index fell sharply from 51.9 points in February to 50.5 points in March – a 10-month low. This, when a reading above 50 points indicates economic expansion, and a reading below this level indicates a contraction. Economists polled by Reuters expected a less sharp drop to a level of 51 points.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote that “The Eurozone PMI is sounding warning bells of stagflation, while the war in the Middle East is pushing up prices sharply and suppressing growth. Corporate costs are climbing at the fastest pace in more than three years, amid a surge in energy prices and strangulation of supply chains as a result of the war. Supplier delays have soared to their highest level the most since mid-2022, which is largely related to shipping problems.”

At 15:45 Israel time, the purchasing managers’ index of S&P Global in the USA will also be published, which is expected to focus the interest of investors.

12:20

Trading in Europe and in the futures contracts on Wall Street continues to be volatile and range from slight declines to stability. European stock markets are now trading close to their base level and the same is true for futures.

Oil prices are now climbing between 1% and 2%. Brent crude is trading around $101 per barrel, while US crude is trading around $90 per barrel.

11:20

Sentiment in the markets again turns negative, while trading continues to be volatile. In Europe, the DAX index is down by about 0.6%, while the FTSE and KAC indices are weakening by about 0.4% and about 0.3%, respectively. Wall Street futures are now trading down as much as 0.3%.

10:25

European stock markets are now trading slightly higher, although trading is very volatile, while investors are closely monitoring the developments in Iran. The DAX index is trading stably, the FTSE advances by about 0.1% and the CAC adds about 0.2% to its value. Considerable volatility is also recorded in futures trading on Wall Street, where the trend is now stable.

9:15

Trading in Asia continues to be conducted in a positive trend, following the sharp increases recorded last night on Wall Street. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange climbed by about 2.8%, the Tokyo Stock Exchange rose by about 1.6%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange jumped by about 1.8% and the Seoul Stock Exchange advanced by about 2.7%.

Wall Street futures moved from declines to slight gains of up to 0.2%, although volatility remains high. At the same time, as mentioned, oil prices are climbing this morning at a rate of about 3%, after dropping by over 10% yesterday. The price of Brent oil hovers around $103 per barrel, while the price of American oil hovers around $91.

Bloomberg attributes the developments to a report published last night in the Wall Street Journal, according to which the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have taken steps that indicate that they may actively enter the campaign against Iran. The report, based on sources privy to the details, revealed that Saudi Arabia has agreed to grant the US military access to the King Fahd Air Base – a significant change of direction, after previously declaring that its bases would not be used for the purpose of attacking Iran.

In addition, the report stated that the United Arab Emirates closed an Iranian-owned hospital and club, a move seen as an attack on a key source of support for Tehran. At the same time, according to the Wall Street Journal, videos that were circulated allegedly showed that some of the missiles fired at Iran were launched from Bahrain.

06:10

Asia

After last night’s sharp price increases on Wall Street, trading in Asia this morning is also on a positive trend. The Kospi index in South Korea jumps about 2.4% (at the peak of trading it was already about 3%), the Hang Seng in Hong Kong jumps about 1.9%, Shanghai adds about 1% to its value and Nike in Japan rises about 0.7%.

In Japan, apart from the Nikkei, the consumer price index was published which fell by about 1.3% last month. In fact, February was the fourth consecutive month in which Japan’s inflation rate recorded declines.

Wall Street

In the New York stock market, which concluded four consecutive weeks of declines, the leading indices closed yesterday (Monday) with sharp price increases, following Trump’s announcement about extending the ultimatum to Iran and holding talks to end the war. The Nasdaq index jumped about 1.7%, the S&P 500 advanced about 1.6% and the Dow Jones added about 1.9% to its value. At the same time, oil prices fell, with Brent oil ending the day just below the $100 per barrel mark.

Today, in the early trading on Wall Street, declines are meanwhile recorded: the Nasdaq and the S&P500 index fall by about 0.5%, and the Dow Jones loses its value by about 0.4%.

The increases were cross-sector, with the strongest sector of the S&P 500 yesterday being private consumption (Consumer Discretionary), with an increase of about 2.5%; After that, the raw materials and technology sectors stood out positively, with increases of about 1.5%, and the industry sector, which advanced by about 1.2%. Among the stocks that stood out positively, you can find some of the main names in the fields of chips and AI, with increases in shares Nvidia , Palantir , Amazon , dark , Meta andBroadcom . Also big bank stocks, like J. times. Morgan andMorgan Stanley traded higher. Also, the shares of the airlines jumped, against the background of the drop in oil prices, among them Delta Airlines , United and more.

As mentioned, the increases followed Trump’s announcement of the extension of the ultimatum to Iran. In a post he published on his social network, Truth Social, Trump wrote that he was “pleased to report that over the past two days the United States of America and the country of Iran have held very good and productive talks regarding a full and final resolution of the conflicts between us in the Middle East. Based on the nature and tone of these in-depth, detailed and constructive talks, which will continue throughout the week – I have ordered the military to postpone any military attack against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a period of Five days, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.”

A few hours later, President Trump stated to CNBC reporter Joe Kernan that “we are very determined to reach a deal with Iran.” However, several sources in Iran denied the existence of direct or indirect contacts between the two countries. An Iranian senior official was quoted as saying that “there was no negotiation and there is no negotiation, and with this type of psychological warfare, the Straits of Hormuz will not return to the state it was in before the war and there will be no peace in the energy markets.”

Chris Larkin, an E-Trade strategist at Morgan Stanley, told Bloomberg that “the market has woken up to some potentially good news. But the continuation of any rally of the respite will likely require actual results on the ground on the geopolitical front. We still owe it to a market driven by the news headlines.”

On the economic website Marketwatch, we discussed yesterday the question of whether President Trump pulled off another TACO (acronym for Trump Always Chickens Out) move against Iran. Let’s recall that the term “TACO Trade” entered the discourse in the markets during the tariff shake-up in April, and aimed to illustrate that President Trump often threatens, but rarely carries out his threats. Marketwatch points out that while it is difficult to assess at the moment whether there is actual progress towards ending the war, Trump’s announcement indicated in the eyes of the markets that he is sensitive to the pressures exerted on them, and that the administration is at least open to the possibility of de-escalation.

Danielle Hathorne, chief market analyst at Capital.com, told the site that “It [ההודעה] Reinforces the idea that the US administration is actively looking for a way out, even if the way there remains unclear. This also explains why the reaction is asymmetric: the markets are much more sensitive to signs of de-escalation (calm down), because the positions in the market were already mostly in the direction of downside risks.”

Bob Elliott, CEO of Unlimited Funds, wrote on the X network that “Maybe it’s a TACO, maybe it’s a tactic within the negotiations, and maybe it’s a trick at all. No one knows for sure, maybe not even Trump himself. What is much clearer is that structurally, we are in an environment of higher volatility these days.”

US debt market

At the same time as yesterday’s gains in the American stock market, cautious optimism was also felt in the debt market, where bond prices climbed, at the same time as yields fell. The ten-year government bond yield fell by about 6 basis points to 4.35%, while the two-year bond yield fell by about 5 basis points to 3.84%. This morning the ten-year yield stands at 4.38%, and the two-year yield at 3.9%, however, they are still significantly far from the levels recorded before the outbreak of the war against Iran.

Mislav Matjaka, market strategist at J. times. Morgan, wrote in a note to investors yesterday that “in order for the stock market to stabilize, beyond considerations of oil prices – bond yields should also stabilize.”

The commodity and currency markets

At the same time as the increases recorded yesterday on Wall Street, the shekel strengthened against the dollar by about 0.7% and its rate stood at NIS 3.11. The dollar returned a significant part of the gains it recorded in recent days against the currencies around the world, against the background of the flight to “safe haven” assets, and the dollar index (DXY) fell by about 0.5%. This morning the dollar is meanwhile stable and still stands at NIS 3.11.

Oil prices fell by a sharp rate of over 10% yesterday, after US President Donald Trump’s announcement about delaying the attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure and extending the ultimatum by five days. President Trump’s announcement immediately lowered the “war premium” that was embodied in the prices. Brent oil ended the day at a price slightly below $100 per barrel, while the price of American oil hovered around $89 per barrel

This morning, on the other hand, oil recovers a little and prices register increases: with Brent oil rising by about 4% and its price now standing at $100 per barrel, and American oil hovering around $92 per barrel.

Peter Bouquar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, told CNBC yesterday that he believes oil prices are not going to fall back to the $65 per barrel area. According to him, “I think the war – just like the corona epidemic – reminded us of the importance of supplies. It reminds us of the importance of supplying essential goods. We are going to see a global hoarding of a wide variety of things.”

“Oil will not return to $65, as it was before. At least as far as natural gas is concerned, Qatar has indicated that it may be three to five years before they can ramp up activity at their LNG (liquefied natural gas) facilities again, so a lot of things are going to remain at a high level,” Bukwar noted. He added that he intends to buy the declines in oil and natural gas, as well as in agriculture, as he does not expect prices to fall much further than their current level.

Gold continued its negative momentum yesterday, although it too ended the day with less sharp declines than those initially registered. The price of gold fell by about 1.5% to the level of 4,420 dollars per ounce. This, after last week was its weakest since 2011, with a drop of close to 10%.

Macro

While this week is sparse in terms of important macro data releases in the world, tomorrow the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index for March is expected to be published in the US. In February, the index indicated a slowdown in the business growth of companies in the service sector and in the expansion of employment, and economists expect that today’s index will indicate further weakening. CNBC reported that economists expect the index to stand at 50.5 points, compared to 51.9 points In February, when a reading above 50 indicates economic expansion and vice versa.