‘Overtaking’ of Campo Largo. Fratelli d’Italia is at 28.2%

First Supermedia after constitutional referendumthe result of which has already begun to shake the political framework. Although the number of surveys is still limited (during the two weeks preceding the referendum, almost no institute published data on voting intentions to parties) we can already glimpse some interesting trends: above all, the decline in FdI to 28.2% (the worst figure since European Championships 2024) and the growth of M5s (+1.3% compared to a month ago). But above all, in aggregate terms, the overtaking of ‘long field‘ (Pd-M5s-Avs-Iv/+Ee) compared to centre-right.

The Supermedia List

FdI 28,2 (-0,6)

PD 21,8 (+0,2)

M5S 13,2 (+0,8)

Forza Italia 8,9 (+0,2)

Greens/Left 6,7 (=)

Lega 6,3 (-0,2)

National Future 3,6 (+0,4)

Action 3,0 (-0,3)

Italia Viva 2,2 (=)

+Europa 1,5 (-0,1)

We Moderates 1.2 (+0.1)* not detected by Youtrend

This, however, is the Supermedia Coalitions 2022:

Centre-right 44,6 (-0,5)

Centre-left 30,0 (+0,1)

M5S 13,2 (+0,8)

Third Pole 5,2 (-0,3)

Others 7.0 (-0.1)

The Supermedia Coalitions 2026

long field 45,4 (+0,9)

Centre-right 44,6 (-0,5)

National Future 3,6 (+0,4)

Action 3.0 (-0.3) Others 3.4 (-0.5)

NB: the variations in brackets indicate the deviation compared to the Superaverage of three weeks ago (5 March 2026).

There has been much talk about how this referendum mobilized a large number of young people, who went to vote at a greater rate than the average (as confirmed by Youtrend data, but also by those of Ipsos-Doxa) and who voted in the majority for No, here too with a greater gap than the general population (data confirmed by Ipsos, Noto, SWG and Youtrend). But when we talk about socio-demographic characteristics, it is also interesting to see the vote by gender: men and women, in fact, also voted slightly differently from each other. If among men there was a substantial head-to-head, with a slight prevalence of No (51%), among women the reform was rejected much more clearly: both for Ipsos-Doxa and for Noto, and also for SWG, the No figure among women is equal to if not higher than 57%.

Therefore: it was undoubtedly a vote strongly characterized by political significance, and whose final outcome was also determined (at least as regards the proportions of the No victory) also by the behavior of young people and women. But is it legitimate to expect further political consequences, especially in light of the resignations of the government and majority representatives which have already been mentioned? According to Youtrend’s instant poll, in reality, Giorgia Meloni should remain at the helm of the Government despite the defeat: 54% of those interviewed think so, compared to 26% who instead consider her resignation necessary following the rejection of “her” reform. Among those who voted Yes, unsurprisingly, 87% thought that Meloni should not resign; it is instead interesting to note that among No voters there is a much more balanced situation: less than half of them (47%) believe Meloni’s resignation following a defeat is necessary, or only 10 points more (37%) than those who believe he can remain in his position.

It is easy to predict that the “long wave” of the constitutional referendum will continue to have effects on Italian politics in the coming months: already next week we will be able to measure, for example, what kind of impact this vote has had on the voters of the opposition parties, also in terms of expectations related to the coalition to be built (and above all the leader to be chosen) in view of the next political elections. Whose electoral campaign, as is now clear, has just begun.

Supermedia methodological note

NOTE: The Supermedia Youtrend/AGI is a weighted average of national polls on voting intentions. The weighting today, which includes surveys carried out from 12 to 25 March, was carried out on 26 March on the basis of the sample size, the date of implementation and the data collection method. The surveys considered were carried out by Eumetra institutes (publication date: March 19), Noto (24 March), SWG (16 and 23 March) e Youtrend (March 24). The detailed methodological note of each survey considered is available on the official website www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it.