Gold prices skyrocketing and exports plummeting, the "perfect storm" of Italian goldsmithing

For the Italian gold districts what has been hitting in recent weeks is a perfect storm: the price of precious metals rising due to the many geopolitical uncertainties, i duties Americans, one new taxation imposed by Türkiye (first market for exports), the cost of energy to the stars (it should not be forgotten that 1,100 degrees of temperature are needed to melt gold) and now the war in Iran.

In essence, as explained to AGI by Maria Cristina Squarcialupi, president of Confindustria Federorafi: “the risk is the total block of exports to some markets, which for several SMEs that work almost exclusively with Dubai would mean seeing their turnover wiped out overnight.”

The “perfect storm” that is hitting Italian gold can be seen from January to November 2025 (data that AGI was able to preview) a 64.5% decline in exports to Turkey (1.79 billion euros) and 9.4% towards the USA (at 1.1 billion, slipped from first to fourth place due to duties). “The problem is not even the high cost of metals – he explains – you get used to that. The problem is the constant fluctuations and volatility of the prices of gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium which maximize uncertainty and do not allow for any planning”.

Suffering the most because it is traditionally more focused towards the East is the district of Arezzo which saw a decline in exports of 31.7% (3.6 billion) from January to September 2025followed by Vicenza which instead grows by 5.8% (1.8 billion), from Alexandria with a +18.9% (1.6 billion) and from Milano with a -38.9% (910 million).

“We expect a slowdown in orders, yes, but what we really fear is the total blockage of some markets if the war were to continue, thus causing a stalemate in all world markets – the president added – it should not be forgotten that Dubai is an international hub also for reaching the Far East”. “Many companies, especially those concentrated on these markets, will really suffer – she finally concluded – our sector is made up of SMEs or small ones, often concentrated in a few products and market niches. There are companies that work almost exclusively with the United Arab Emirates and all this makes them vulnerable. For them, turnover risks going from “X” to zero overnight.”

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And all this translates into something decidedly impactful if we consider that the gold sector (which is also silversmith and jewellery) in Italy counted in 2024 6,825 companies with 33,919 employees and a turnover of 12.7 billion euros. The Arezzo district dominates, accounting for almost 20% of goldsmith companies, followed by Veneto (Vicenza) with 12% and Piedmont (Valenza) with 11% as well as Lombardy (Milan).

In terms of turnover, the district follows the same percentages relating to exports: Arezzo with approximately 30/35% of the total, Vicenza with 20/25% and Valenza (Alessandria) with 15/20%.

“Now everything is at a standstill” added Squarcialupi, recalling that the data available to date relating to the first 11 months of 2025 show theItalian gold exports at 11.7 billion euros with a decrease of 19.2% in value and 23% in quantity. Finally, it should not be forgotten that the Middle Eastern war effectively blocked markets which, in addition to being the gateway to the Far East, were dominated by customers on average high-spending and traditionally oriented towards the purchase of gold and precious metals.

“We live from day to day because it is really impossible to make a serious prediction – he finally concluded – if the war were to stop or become regional it would certainly have to start again. Otherwise many companies will end up really suffering”.