After the approval of the state budget, the Israeli Ministry of Finance worsened economic forecasts

His department’s initial estimate, prepared in the early days of Operation Roar of the Lion, called for a short campaign and a 0.4 percentage point cut in economic growth forecasts, from 5.2% to 4.8%.

However, since this scenario did not materialize, the department developed three new scenarios depending on the timing of the end of hostilities.

If the war with Iran ends in mid-April, and with Lebanon at the end of April, GDP growth will be 3.8%.

If fighting in Lebanon drags on until the end of the second quarter under the same Iranian scenario, GDP growth will be 3.5%.

The most pessimistic option is the completion of the Iranian campaign at the end of April and the Lebanese campaign at the end of the second quarter. In this case, GDP growth is projected to be 3.3%.

The forecast for 2027 has been adjusted to a range of 5.3-6.1% depending on the scenario.