The reasons for the sharp drop in the price of soybeans in the local market

According to analyst Sebastián Gavaldá, from the consulting firm Globaltecnos, the recent drop in price responds mainly to the incipient “junction” between the old and new harvest, a time in the market in which the greater availability of merchandise puts downward pressure on prices. In that context, the value would have fallen to around 25 dollars per ton in a few days, and its immediate evolution will be tied to the pace of the harvest’s progress.

In fact, the ton of beans that until Last Thursday you could pay 350 dollars, since Friday it has barely exceeded 320.

Fernando Maquieira, grain market operator, states: “It’s very simple, many of the factories have plant shutdowns for maintenance, to leave everything optimal for the receipt of the new soybeans. On the other hand, with what they have already purchased – plus what they receive from Paraguay – they arrive for what would be the new harvest. Therefore, the market is already passing new soybean values. You may have a case of very specific coverage, but this was already being handled since they were with staggered purchases according to delivery.”

In this context, Maquieira’s recommendation for companies was clear: “We had been warning clients to sell what they had left because if not, it would be linked to the prices of the new harvest. In short, if they wanted to speculate they could do so with the new harvest.”

Gavaldá says that climatic factors, such as possible rains that delay harvesting tasks, could temporarily support prices by restricting effective supply, but warns that the scenario for recovery is limited. “With the full entry of the new campaign, the market will become increasingly dependent on the daily flow of sales of the producers. Although the low level of marketing could offer some support to prices – to the extent that producers retain merchandise – there is also the financial need to face harvest costs and commitments, which could accelerate sales and once again exert downward pressure on prices,” he explains.

Maquieira agrees and adds: “You have to keep in mind that when the harvest starts here, the pressure will surely be felt and values ​​will loosen. There are also tempting values ​​for delivery in November with a pass of almost 6 percent“And in a more general analysis of the variables that may affect the coming months, the operator considers that “prices today are good.” “Brazil is almost finishing the harvest and a good harvest is expected here. On the other hand, although the US has good stocks, the planting estimate would increase by 1.5 million hectares,” he details.

In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) estimates soybean production of 48.5 million tons for the 2025/26 campaign.