Iran’s ability to respond is difficult to erase

On March 27, Iran launched 6 ballistic missiles and 29 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, injuring at least 15 soldiers, including 5 seriously injured, according to sources familiar with the matter. US officials initially reported at least 10 people were injured, including two in serious condition.

Iran’s raid is also said to have seriously damaged the E-3 Sentry “magic eye aircraft” and many US tanker aircraft at the base. This is one of 6 E-3G Sentry aircraft deployed by the US at Prince Sultan base. The loss of an E-3 Sentry is a huge loss, because this aircraft model plays an important role in detecting enemy raids and coordinating combat activities on many fronts.

That wasn’t the only attack by Iran over the weekend. Two UAVs targeted Salalah port in Oman, while Kuwait International Airport was also attacked. Workers at an aluminum factory in Abu Dhabi were injured by missiles and UAVs.

On March 30, the Kuwait government announced that a seawater filtration plant in the country suffered “significant damage” because of an attack from Iran, killing an Indian national worker.

Iran’s retaliatory attacks continue to take place, even though President Donald Trump announced that the US had almost wiped out the country’s military capabilities. The US military said the number of attacks launched by Iran had decreased by about 90% compared to the early days of the war, while the Israeli military claimed to have disabled about 70% of Iran’s hundreds of missile launchers.

The retaliation against Israel and the Gulf countries in the past few days is the latest sign that Iran still has enough missiles and UAVs to cause damage, chaos and make the enemy pay a high price. This also signals that they still have strong fighting ability after more than a month of fighting.

Millions of Israelis still have to rush into shelters day and night to avoid fire from Iran. According to Israel’s national rescue agency, 7 people were injured after missile attacks in the central region of the country on March 26.

Farzin Nadimi, a security analyst at the Washington Institute specializing in Iran and the Gulf region, commented that the combined US and Israeli campaign was very effective in causing damage to the Iranian leadership, as well as seriously reducing the capabilities of the country’s air force and navy.

“But we all understand that Iran’s main measure of success is its ability to continue to launch ballistic missiles and UAVs at Israel, US bases and Gulf countries. We know that they can still do that,” Nadimi said.

A US official said that Iran most likely still possesses thousands of Shahed UAVs and hundreds of ballistic missiles, despite US and Israeli raids over the past 4 weeks. However, this person warned that it is impossible to know anything for sure, because US intelligence information about Iran’s capabilities is still limited.

Public statements from the US military are also carefully worded.

Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), said on March 25 that “Iran’s missile and UAV launch rate decreased by 90%”, thanks to US and Israeli airstrikes.

That does not mean confirming that this campaign has destroyed 90% of Iran’s UAVs and missiles, according to analysts.

Kelly A. Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, said the number of attacks may not be as important as the level of effectiveness. She found that Iran’s target hit rate has more than doubled since March 10.

“They knew how to adapt,” she said. “There are signs that this is not a defeated adversary, but rather adapting, learning and causing enough damage to execute their strategy.”

She said Iran may have fired fewer missiles and UAVs because they were changing their positions, not because they were destroyed. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may have proactively reduced the pace of attacks to integrate new intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance information into each target selection decision.

“The US may be too focused on the number of bombs and how much Iran’s raid intensity has decreased. They love to give the number 90%. Is that number obscuring the fact that Iran has changed its approach?” Ms. Grieco asked.

While the Israeli military said its air defense network had intercepted the majority of ballistic missiles, Iran dealt a symbolic blow last weekend, when a missile penetrated all shields and crashed into the city of Dimona in southern Israel, injuring dozens of people.

The missile hit site is less than 16 kilometers from Israel’s nuclear research facility and reactor, one of the most heavily guarded sites.

Iran also seems to have found an “Achilles heel” in Israel’s defense system. They launched ballistic missiles carrying cluster warheads, a type capable of dispersing dozens of submunitions within a range of several kilometers that Israel has almost no way to intercept.

Submunitions typically cause less damage than a missile’s large unitary warhead, although in some cases they have demonstrated lethality. On March 27, a man in Tel Aviv was killed by such a submunition.

Experts say the optimal way to neutralize these missiles is to intercept them above the atmosphere, where debris can burn up without harming the infrastructure below. Israel’s Arrow 3 interceptor missiles operate at such altitudes, but they are very expensive and Tel Aviv does not have many of these types of ammunition in service. Lower layers of defense often fail to stop Iranian missiles before they release submunitions.

Iran’s ability to retaliate in this war shows its rapid recovery after the 12-day conflict in June 2025. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu then declared that Israel had achieved a “historic” “generational” victory. He said Iran’s ballistic missile production capacity had been “destroyed”.

Analysts say Israel appears to have underestimated the pace of strengthening Iran’s missile capabilities. Like Israel, Iran did not sit still after the war in June 2025 but took advantage of the time to prepare for the next conflict.

“They had nine months to sit down and plan,” said Miri Eisin, a retired Israeli colonel. She added that Iran’s capabilities have been “degraded” and “eroded”, but that is the maximum that can be achieved in several weeks of fighting.

Expert Nadimi from the Washington Institute commented that although the US and Israel continuously bombard Iran’s missile bases, assembly areas, and a number of factories and warehouses, the IRGC can still launch a significant number of missiles with an estimated 20-30 missiles a day.

Farzan Sabet, an analyst on Iran and weapons systems at the Geneva Institute of International Studies in Switzerland, agrees that while Iran is launching fewer missiles, they have a higher rate of penetrating air defenses than at the beginning of the war.

Targets threatened by Iran are also more notable, such as the remote Diego Garcia air base in the Indian Ocean or the attack on Dimona.

“Once the feeling of insecurity is established, you don’t need to launch thousands or hundreds of missiles every day. You can maintain that with just a few dozen successful penetrations,” Sabet said.