The finishing blow? Four possible scenarios for Trump’s next move

The importance of the island stems, among other things, from its unique geographical data. While most of the Iranian coastline is characterized by waters too shallow for giant tankers, Kharg Island lies in deep waters that allow docking and loading of vessels of these dimensions. According to data from the Kpler commercial intelligence company published on CNN, the island’s storage capacity is estimated at 31 million barrels. As of the beginning of March, the actual capacity was about 58%.

The new strategy

While the reports about the deployment of forces and the discussions in the White House multiply, it seems that President Trump has decided to switch to a strategy of “maximum pressure” in order to reach a decision or force the opening of Hormuz. After a period of talk of negotiations, the US administration is now considering steps on the ground, with officials confirming in recent days that sending thousands of troops to the island immediately is being considered.

According to reports, the Pentagon is preparing to send about 3,000 fighters from the 82nd Airborne Division, alongside two special marine units. The hope in Washington is that the occupation of the island will force Tehran to open Hormuz; On the other hand, there is concern that damage to the facilities on the island will lead to a spike in oil prices, which will directly affect the global economy. At the same time, CNN reported that Tehran would increase the presence of military personnel and air defense systems in Kharg.

Ella Rosenberg, an expert on Iranian financial regulation at the Center for Foreign and Security Affairs (JCFA) and a member of the Deborah Forum, explains the strategic significance of the move: “It is important because it signals to the Iranians that they are not giving up.”

According to Rosenberg, the importance of oil to the Revolutionary Guards has intensified as other revenue streams have been blocked or reduced. She lists four main profit channels of the organization: “First, human trafficking with the Basij, but due to the situation this does not happen as in the past. Second, the crypto, which needs to be liquidated. Third, the foreign currency which is difficult to deal with and there are European sanctions. And the fourth commodity, where there are difficulties of entry and exit.” In a reality where the other channels are limited, oil remains the only asset that functions. “Therefore only oil remains,” emphasizes Rosenberg.

Four scenarios

According to a report in Axios, the Pentagon is formulating a plan for a “final blow” designed to achieve a military decision if diplomatic efforts fail. The American plan outlines four main action scenarios: a ground invasion of Kharg, taking over the island of Lark which establishes Iranian control of the strait, the capture of the strategic island of Abu Musa and nearby islands, or a physical blockade of oil tankers on the eastern side of the strait.

Prof. Eitan Shamir, head of the Begin Sadat Center at Bar-Ilan University, estimates in a conversation with Globes that the next American move will be unexpected. “If you have to bet, Trump will lead another move. Whether it will be the island of Kharg or the other options, the goal is to open Hormuz,” he says. However, according to him, the heated debate surrounding Kharg may lead in a different direction: “Precisely because it is clear, maybe it won’t happen. Trump will want to do the unexpected; he is a person who likes to leave options open. The contradictions in his words and the lack of coherence are a deliberate blur.”

Regarding the reported size of the forces, Shamir recognizes an operational limitation but also a potential for multi-arena action: “Ultimately, this is a light infantry force that cannot occupy a large area and hold it for a long time. That’s why they are limited in options, but can act in several aspects at the same time.”

A Reuters report confirms that the White House is considering a ground occupation of Kharg Island. According to the report, such an action could prolong the campaign instead of a short one, due to the fear that the soldiers would be exposed to attacks such as drones and explosive drones. Prof. Shamir reinforces: “The troops will be exposed to continuous attacks. It is not simple; They might be ducks on the range.”

The capture of Kharg will give the US the ability to disrupt the oil trade of Iran, which ranks as the third largest producer among oil exporting countries. According to reports, US forces have already carried out extensive strikes on the island in mid-March; Trump stated that the military targets were “completely wiped out”, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed that over 90 targets had been bombed. Rosenberg notes that about 90% of Iranian oil is exported to China, but stresses: “The Chinese are not dependent on Iran and can purchase oil from alternative sources.”