Prof. Uzi Rabi warns that Iran has become a military regime

However, Ravi also points to a broader strategic shift in the energy arena. “In every bad there is good, because you now understand that the entire architecture of oil routing, who you go with and who is your enemy, is now changing the phase to the west, it goes with India’s big plan, through the Middle East and from there to Europe,” he explained.

Referring to the possibility of a political settlement, he expressed deep skepticism: “Even if Trump tries to reach an agreement, I ‘trust’ the Iranians not to go to an agreement, and if you want to solve the problem, you will come to the conclusion that it is not the nuclear or the oil – it is the regime.” According to him, any attempt to solve the crisis without addressing the governmental structure itself will lead to only partial results.

Ravi stressed that the Middle East operates according to different rules than what is accepted in the West: “When the Middle East pulls you in – it basically takes over you. Trump brought significant forces here, these are task forces that will bring Trump to the conclusion that the problem is not the oil but the regime itself.”

According to him, this is a completely different regime than the one that took shape after the Islamic revolution in 1979. “There are changes in the regime itself, the ayatollahs are becoming a kind of formal and insignificant thing, it’s no longer a regime of ayatollahs, it’s a regime of a military junta called the Revolutionary Guards, which is made of circles-circles that take care of themselves.”

Ravi explained that this structure also dictates the interests of the Iranian leadership: “These guys do better in the war than in the post-war period. They earn black money, and the people do not interest them in the least, so from their point of view they have no need for the day after the war so soon, because the day after the war they will have to manage the country, economy and society – not only do they not know how to do it, they are also not interested in it.”

Finally, he commented on how military achievements can be translated into political change: “After bringing Iran to an unprecedented situation, you are left to come to the conclusion that these things you are putting into something central in that you are exhausting the regime itself, the people, the commanders, its economy – which will accumulate until a change comes.”