VN-Index decreased nearly 11% a month

VN-Index increased nearly 12 points, to 1,674 points in the last session of the month thanks to cash flow to large capitalization stocks. However, compared to the price range at the beginning of the month, the index decreased by 206 points. This development caused the market to lose momentum for 4 consecutive months, and at the same time erased the achievements accumulated from the beginning of the year.

With a decrease of nearly 11%, VN-Index is in the group of 10 stock indexes with the most negative fluctuations globally this month. The index representing Ho Chi Minh City floor ranked behind Dubai, Korea, Indonesia, South Africa, and Greece markets.

After many months of maintaining a positive trend, Vietnamese stocks experienced a strong correction in the first days of March, when the war in the Middle East broke out. The VN-Index on March 9 recorded a decrease of 115 points, a record high in absolute value. Many important support levels were continuously penetrated, including the 1,600 point mark, due to the pressure of “margin calls” and mortgage selling.

As for the VN30, the index had a session that decreased by 6.5% (while the maximum amplitude was 7%), then continued to slide and at one point fell to its lowest level in half a year.

VIC is the stock that had the most negative impact on the market when it “blew away” more than 48 points of the VN-Index. The two leading enterprises in the oil and gas industry, GAS and PLX, are also in the group that brought the index down the most. The remaining representatives mainly belong to the banking and securities groups.

However, according to many securities companies, historical data shows that strong corrections are often accompanied by a relatively high probability of recovery, reinforcing the view of “rewards for patience”, especially in the context that March often has favorable seasonal factors. The analysis team of SSI Securities Company believes that the market may be supported by the valuation becoming more attractive after the adjustment period, the prospect of improved business results in the first quarter of the year and many businesses planning to grow profits by 20-30% this year.

In March, the average market liquidity was nearly 29,000 billion VND. In some sessions, there was sudden selling pressure, so the value changed hands jumped to over 48,000 billion VND. Particularly at the end of the month, the matched order was only 24,000 billion VND due to the cautious psychology of domestic investors when the market did not have clear signals.

In addition to plunging scores, foreign investor transactions are also the highlight of the stock market this month. Foreign investors have sold off goods for 14 consecutive sessions, bringing the total net withdrawal value from the beginning of the year to now to over 31,000 billion VND. BSR, VCB, MBB, MSN and HDB took turns sharing the top positions in net selling value of foreign investors.

For short-term forecast, the analysis team of MB Securities Company (MBS) believes that the base scenario is that the VN-Index will accumulate or move sideways around the price range of 1,650 points to wait for information about first quarter macro data and the mid-term review of FTSE Russell. In case the index retests this price range, it will also be a positive signal to establish a short-term bottom, before moving up to 1,700 points.

According to MBS, the market has recovered but investors should still be cautious, disburse or surf with a low proportion and not chase during rising sessions.